{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f74ae17-4887-416b-bd8a-182c8e4b53f1", "symbol": "ISRD", "name": "Amundi Label ISR Credit USD UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.744, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.712, "architecture_energy": 30.194, "architecture_maturity": 57.248, "architecture_confidence": 72.844, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.53, "rotation_up": 20.15, "upward_expansion": 56.89, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 43.68, "downward_expansion": 25.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.694467, 9.744564, 9.703148, 9.676265 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.665, "trend_reference": 9.635167, "distance_from_trend": 0.003096, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.599008, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006875, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.892741, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020699, "excess_performance": -0.032612, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003096, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006841, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006875, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010709, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058927, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049614, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020699, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.18695, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1088, "relative_activity": 0.058726, "balance": 0.18695, "dry_up": 0.574507, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006932, "annualized_volatility": 0.046889, "from_high_reference": -0.026295, "from_low_reference": 0.036572 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.635167, "fair_value_reference": 9.599008, "structural_low": 9.469, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030727, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 10.0152, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 9.9634, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, 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9.833933, 9.742964, 9.674476, 9.641987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.793, "volume": 149746, "typical_volume": 26359.45, "trend": 9.605167, "fair_value": 9.593935, "relative_strength": -0.731185, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.626095, "energy": 88.953678, "activity_lines": [ 9.834533, 9.764364, 9.6883, 9.654553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.763, "volume": 40291, "typical_volume": 28374.0, "trend": 9.6153, "fair_value": 9.595972, "relative_strength": -1.02839, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.027522, "energy": 67.958131, "activity_lines": [ 9.815267, 9.775855, 9.698367, 9.664735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.763, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 19258.3, "trend": 9.625433, "fair_value": 9.597961, "relative_strength": -1.415873, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.427231, "energy": 62.177719, "activity_lines": [ 9.792133, 9.783327, 9.707676, 9.674265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.621, "volume": 1196, "typical_volume": 19065.9, "trend": 9.629567, "fair_value": 9.598232, "relative_strength": -4.231947, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.967653, "energy": 23.081858, "activity_lines": [ 9.7258, 9.760764, 9.703186, 9.673978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.665, "volume": 1088, "typical_volume": 18526.75, "trend": 9.635167, "fair_value": 9.599008, "relative_strength": -5.892741, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.712263, "energy": 30.194337, "activity_lines": [ 9.694467, 9.744564, 9.703148, 9.676265 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }