{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f79d788-578a-490e-a452-ffacba11e4ce", "symbol": "TWM", "name": "PROSHARES ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.601, "architecture_energy": 49.52, "architecture_maturity": 86.889, "architecture_confidence": 76.174, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.86, "rotation_up": 29.27, "upward_expansion": 12.55, "deceleration": 59.95, "rotation_down": 42.17, "downward_expansion": 72.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.506667, 21.50789, 22.318065, 23.804067 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.63, "trend_reference": 25.47455, "distance_from_trend": -0.190172, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.246483, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.522967, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.344452, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.248141, "excess_performance": -0.373766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.190172, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11457, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.522967, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023674, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.363445, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029728, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.248141, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.973244, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2557192, "relative_activity": 0.790674, "balance": 0.973244, "dry_up": 0.87906, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07549, "annualized_volatility": 0.327656, "from_high_reference": -0.491316, "from_low_reference": 0.01264 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.47455, "fair_value_reference": 43.246483, "structural_low": 20.3725, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.03303, "positive_rate": 0.432432, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.035014, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.261834, "worst_return": -0.166858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.035308, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.040791, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.406526, "worst_return": -0.243207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058392, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.182235, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.081675, "worst_return": -0.322364, 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"fair_value": 44.157633, "relative_strength": -36.682248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.470534, "energy": 75.941834, "activity_lines": [ 21.25632, 21.847546, 23.594856, 24.979573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.64, "volume": 3067958, "typical_volume": 3884000.25, "trend": 26.321149, "fair_value": 43.93212, "relative_strength": -33.827518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.929975, "energy": 70.6487, "activity_lines": [ 21.356672, 21.716428, 23.221932, 24.658207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.1, "volume": 2598551, "typical_volume": 3610296.55, "trend": 26.040353, "fair_value": 43.716862, "relative_strength": -31.06534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.44371, "energy": 52.218815, "activity_lines": [ 21.624, 21.699457, 22.924269, 24.385874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.13, "volume": 3148494, "typical_volume": 3412282.55, "trend": 25.737666, "fair_value": 43.493085, "relative_strength": -30.510315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.399507, "energy": 41.82436, "activity_lines": [ 21.852, 21.730585, 22.669861, 24.133593 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.63, "volume": 2557192, "typical_volume": 3234192.2, "trend": 25.47455, "fair_value": 43.246483, "relative_strength": -36.344452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.600598, "energy": 49.519678, "activity_lines": [ 21.506667, 21.50789, 22.318065, 23.804067 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }