{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f817f74-1621-4e35-9343-0b16d1bee884", "symbol": "CEMX", "name": "CEMATRIX Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.788, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.809, "architecture_energy": 16.817, "architecture_maturity": 39.462, "architecture_confidence": 87.016, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.08, "rotation_up": 31.26, "upward_expansion": 55.94, "deceleration": 82.28, "rotation_down": 23.26, "downward_expansion": 17.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.498, 0.497818, 0.503905, 0.491699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.5, "trend_reference": 0.464667, "distance_from_trend": 0.07604, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.333654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.498559, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.664483, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.388889, "excess_performance": 0.268468, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07604, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12148, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.498559, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283743, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.086645, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271828, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.388889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.319756, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 307000, "relative_activity": 0.411079, "balance": 0.319756, "dry_up": 0.56269, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058462, "annualized_volatility": 0.27986, "from_high_reference": -0.152542, "from_low_reference": 0.923077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.464667, "fair_value_reference": 0.333654, "structural_low": 0.35, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.057631, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.03117, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.189189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.22479, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.170393, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.310345, "worst_return": -0.351351, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.5, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.388741, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.586207, "worst_return": -0.405405, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.172414, 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"2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.321429, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.498667, 0.501455, 0.502905, 0.48 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.49, "volume": 281100, "typical_volume": 991080.0, "trend": 0.449333, "fair_value": 0.327821, "relative_strength": 11.059098, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.552668, "energy": 14.920139, "activity_lines": [ 0.496667, 0.498182, 0.503048, 0.482925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.51, "volume": 302800, "typical_volume": 970265.0, "trend": 0.455, "fair_value": 0.329744, "relative_strength": 14.821749, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.474114, "energy": 24.997884, "activity_lines": [ 0.501333, 0.499636, 0.504714, 0.486839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.49, "volume": 790000, "typical_volume": 832875.0, "trend": 0.459667, "fair_value": 0.331667, "relative_strength": 10.354885, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.764276, "energy": 18.43503, "activity_lines": [ 0.498, 0.497636, 0.504, 0.489097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5, "volume": 307000, "typical_volume": 746815.0, "trend": 0.464667, "fair_value": 0.333654, "relative_strength": 8.664483, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.809376, "energy": 16.817317, "activity_lines": [ 0.498, 0.497818, 0.503905, 0.491699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }