{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f827828-77e9-45d5-a87d-d7de4b6148bb", "symbol": "6721", "name": "Sincere Security Corp. Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.186, "architecture_energy": 88.29, "architecture_maturity": 47.826, "architecture_confidence": 83.768, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.1, "rotation_up": 8.55, "upward_expansion": 21.16, "deceleration": 37.09, "rotation_down": 84.22, "downward_expansion": 99.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.993332, 52.9505, 53.981679, 54.623612 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 51.599998, "trend_reference": 55.653079, "distance_from_trend": -0.072828, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.0323, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.011124, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.831328, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.118256, "excess_performance": -0.559628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072828, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024612, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.011124, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076895, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.358313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001349, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.118256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.319441, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72223, "relative_activity": 1.124744, "balance": 0.319441, "dry_up": 1.084724, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024334, "annualized_volatility": 0.086859, "from_high_reference": -0.130873, "from_low_reference": 0.009785 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.653079, "fair_value_reference": 51.0323, "structural_low": 51.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.007343, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.041335, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 0.047853, "worst_return": -0.092677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.039693, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.029938, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.227723, "worst_return": -0.107182, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.068251, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.048521, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.306931, "worst_return": -0.170429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.711619, "energy": 83.128633, "activity_lines": [ 53.559999, 54.464091, 54.865232, 55.431408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.0, "volume": 49341, "typical_volume": 60330.7, "trend": 56.038182, "fair_value": 50.928303, "relative_strength": -33.088799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.012065, "energy": 89.764336, "activity_lines": [ 52.859999, 53.913302, 54.560603, 55.158278 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.0, "volume": 123495, "typical_volume": 61651.7, "trend": 55.849151, "fair_value": 50.981583, "relative_strength": -33.93017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.459018, "energy": 89.169895, "activity_lines": [ 52.386666, 53.438163, 54.279833, 54.89775 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 51.599998, "volume": 72223, "typical_volume": 64212.85, "trend": 55.653079, "fair_value": 51.0323, "relative_strength": -35.831328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.186234, "energy": 88.290104, "activity_lines": [ 51.993332, 52.9505, 53.981679, 54.623612 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }