{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f8a582c-d5be-417e-ac72-2ce657a71ca8", "symbol": "301037", "name": "Shanghai Baolijia Chemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.013, "architecture_energy": 54.319, "architecture_maturity": 31.891, "architecture_confidence": 88.505, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.53, "rotation_up": 18.38, "upward_expansion": 8.53, "deceleration": 56.7, "rotation_down": 61.84, "downward_expansion": 81.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.672, 11.913455, 13.222619, 13.89243 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.71, "trend_reference": 14.646333, "distance_from_trend": -0.132206, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.593223, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009273, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.488511, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.212515, "excess_performance": -0.219915, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132206, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054486, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009273, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.348523, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113654, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.212515, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.752665, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14547564, "relative_activity": 1.472703, "balance": 0.752665, "dry_up": 1.292052, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111663, "annualized_volatility": 0.423701, "from_high_reference": -0.284347, "from_low_reference": 0.311662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.646333, "fair_value_reference": 12.593223, "structural_low": 9.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.007763, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014062, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.23242, "worst_return": -0.138154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082552, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.047541, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.228443, "worst_return": -0.131202, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.236282, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.02371, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.30721, "worst_return": -0.119577, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.998059, "energy": 88.589334, "activity_lines": [ 11.800667, 12.792909, 14.020429, 14.515914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.5, "volume": 14816260, "typical_volume": 9830263.75, "trend": 14.794667, "fair_value": 12.604148, "relative_strength": -29.380026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.58634, "energy": 86.620453, "activity_lines": [ 11.275333, 12.189273, 13.624809, 14.230323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.55, "volume": 9932130, "typical_volume": 9737527.85, "trend": 14.702667, "fair_value": 12.594716, "relative_strength": -20.618122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.72579, "energy": 77.212142, "activity_lines": [ 11.258, 11.894909, 13.357095, 14.020989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.71, "volume": 14547564, "typical_volume": 9878136.15, "trend": 14.646333, "fair_value": 12.593223, "relative_strength": -16.488511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.01259, "energy": 54.319127, "activity_lines": [ 11.672, 11.913455, 13.222619, 13.89243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }