{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f95585d-e5a5-45f2-82dc-fecf57799b11", "symbol": "HOG", "name": "Harley-Davidson Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.928, "architecture_energy": 37.601, "architecture_maturity": 52.766, "architecture_confidence": 47.072, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.7, "rotation_up": 42.3, "upward_expansion": 73.17, "deceleration": 71.56, "rotation_down": 24.79, "downward_expansion": 4.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.532, 25.453401, 24.981524, 23.907714 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.01, "trend_reference": 22.521401, "distance_from_trend": 0.154902, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.830498, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.065414, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.900556, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.292449, "excess_performance": 0.166825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.154902, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048185, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.065414, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047231, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019006, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017782, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.292449, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.767317, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10014292, "relative_activity": 0.70179, "balance": 0.767317, "dry_up": 0.950921, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075616, "annualized_volatility": 0.372032, "from_high_reference": -0.145592, "from_low_reference": 0.533398 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.521401, "fair_value_reference": 27.830498, "structural_low": 16.962323, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.048995, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": -0.068197, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.189566, "worst_return": -0.164402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.149528, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.083131, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.006747, "worst_return": -0.29239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.1248, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.202581, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075547, "worst_return": -0.34802, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.031413, "energy": 47.69733, "activity_lines": [ 25.626, 25.302245, 24.441211, 23.300055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.49, "volume": 21130867, "typical_volume": 14989870.1, "trend": 22.213725, "fair_value": 27.933062, "relative_strength": 0.12176, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.114849, "energy": 39.246395, "activity_lines": [ 25.62, 25.390592, 24.666536, 23.521889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.54, "volume": 12924061, "typical_volume": 14672186.2, "trend": 22.355995, "fair_value": 27.867327, "relative_strength": -4.386851, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.196047, "energy": 33.773058, "activity_lines": [ 25.309333, 25.297335, 24.770796, 23.671972 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.01, "volume": 10014292, "typical_volume": 14269632.15, "trend": 22.521401, "fair_value": 27.830498, "relative_strength": -1.900556, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.927937, "energy": 37.601322, "activity_lines": [ 25.532, 25.453401, 24.981524, 23.907714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }