{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f962da1-088e-412b-958d-2c99f3ccc35e", "symbol": "MAYT", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY BUFFER10 MAY ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.232, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.454, "architecture_energy": 58.052, "architecture_maturity": 45.466, "architecture_confidence": 74.519, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.86, "rotation_up": 61.63, "upward_expansion": 81.36, "deceleration": 62.47, "rotation_down": 21.52, "downward_expansion": 8.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.31792, 39.131131, 38.86988, 38.496852 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 39.8698, "trend_reference": 38.035993, "distance_from_trend": 0.048212, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.063929, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20584, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.708724, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.07125, "excess_performance": -0.054374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048212, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021038, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20584, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002056, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047087, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007596, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07125, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.32781, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86821, "relative_activity": 0.251538, "balance": 3.32781, "dry_up": 0.323452, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013994, "annualized_volatility": 0.062233, "from_high_reference": -0.001258, "from_low_reference": 0.126584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.035993, "fair_value_reference": 33.063929, "structural_low": 36.36, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.005155, "positive_rate": 0.736842, "directional_follow_through": 0.736842, "median_excess_return": -0.001854, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.021917, "worst_return": -0.031977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020045, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.004293, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.034186, "worst_return": -0.026166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.054129, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041861, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.056789, "worst_return": -0.008409, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-31", "close": 39.1733, "volume": 135923, "typical_volume": 340991.0, "trend": 37.943767, "fair_value": 32.977681, "relative_strength": -3.246583, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.658371, "energy": 47.202105, "activity_lines": [ 39.041267, 38.957091, 38.724645, 38.372592 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.8698, "volume": 86821, "typical_volume": 345160.85, "trend": 38.035993, "fair_value": 33.063929, "relative_strength": -4.708724, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.453789, "energy": 58.051677, "activity_lines": [ 39.31792, 39.131131, 38.86988, 38.496852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }