{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5f9d5784-dc07-4f44-aae7-7bbb389949f9", "symbol": "5011", "name": "OFCO Industrial Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.363, "architecture_energy": 24.298, "architecture_maturity": 66.57, "architecture_confidence": 80.484, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.24, "rotation_up": 17.03, "upward_expansion": 52.04, "deceleration": 93.98, "rotation_down": 42.88, "downward_expansion": 22.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.013333, 19.611818, 19.09381, 17.934086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.950001, "trend_reference": 16.398333, "distance_from_trend": 0.094623, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.287294, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018444, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.294803, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.52766, "excess_performance": 0.086288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094623, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.255936, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018444, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167297, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052948, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135779, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.52766, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.900745, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1105038, "relative_activity": 0.247589, "balance": 1.900745, "dry_up": 0.405641, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167774, "annualized_volatility": 0.680348, "from_high_reference": -0.357782, "from_low_reference": 0.835378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.398333, "fair_value_reference": 18.287294, "structural_low": 11.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.040264, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.046398, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.06867, "worst_return": -0.092251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.01232, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.167787, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.42446, "worst_return": -0.360201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.020866, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.151894, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.461255, "worst_return": -0.440405, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"activity_lines": [ 21.293333, 21.251818, 19.087143, 17.620968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.85, "volume": 3254186, "typical_volume": 4548433.55, "trend": 15.888333, "fair_value": 18.334519, "relative_strength": -6.891187, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.651988, "energy": 21.920104, "activity_lines": [ 19.44, 20.587273, 19.038095, 17.697634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.75, "volume": 1283885, "typical_volume": 4533495.05, "trend": 16.146667, "fair_value": 18.310567, "relative_strength": -3.655122, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.412574, "energy": 27.027528, "activity_lines": [ 18.476666, 20.072727, 19.062619, 17.817742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.950001, "volume": 1105038, "typical_volume": 4463187.3, "trend": 16.398333, "fair_value": 18.287294, "relative_strength": -5.294803, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.362554, "energy": 24.297866, "activity_lines": [ 18.013333, 19.611818, 19.09381, 17.934086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }