{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fa5c983-f693-433b-95a8-2a76e1a76e9a", "symbol": "SS1", "name": "SUN SILVER FPO [SS1]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.792, "architecture_energy": 44.989, "architecture_maturity": 79.336, "architecture_confidence": 61.829, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.33, "rotation_up": 26.82, "upward_expansion": 18.81, "deceleration": 66.14, "rotation_down": 41.47, "downward_expansion": 66.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.967333, 0.955545, 1.048762, 1.174398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.08, "trend_reference": 1.389, "distance_from_trend": -0.222462, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.963162, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.121306, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.061034, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.360947, "excess_performance": -0.424652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.222462, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09531, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.121306, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.350342, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.343526, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.360947, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.518437, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6687073, "relative_activity": 1.298497, "balance": 0.518437, "dry_up": 1.01052, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133013, "annualized_volatility": 0.668966, "from_high_reference": -0.604396, "from_low_reference": 0.421053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.389, "fair_value_reference": 0.963162, "structural_low": 0.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.106292, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.108615, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.016854, "worst_return": -0.229437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.225641, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.401544, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.363415, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064394, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101083, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064935, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-17", "close": 0.62, "volume": 34942235, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-24", "close": 0.57, "volume": 24484890, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-31", "close": 0.54, "volume": 8946252, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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1.048762, 1.174398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }