{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fa619f5-8df9-42e5-bb27-2de04c54b0ee", "symbol": "MMIN", "name": "NYLI MACKAY MUNI INSURED ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.448, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.899, "architecture_energy": 27.461, "architecture_maturity": 36.163, "architecture_confidence": 55.238, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.7, "rotation_up": 16.98, "upward_expansion": 17.79, "deceleration": 65.67, "rotation_down": 57.78, "downward_expansion": 38.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.742134, 23.848595, 23.867103, 23.850257 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.78, "trend_reference": 23.832888, "distance_from_trend": -0.002219, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.608561, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051814, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.151238, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002542, "excess_performance": -0.128166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002219, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00563, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051814, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101512, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016031, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002542, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.847316, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 533984, "relative_activity": 1.297897, "balance": 0.847316, "dry_up": 1.062285, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00829, "annualized_volatility": 0.041995, "from_high_reference": -0.016032, "from_low_reference": 0.069252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.832888, "fair_value_reference": 22.608561, "structural_low": 23.338305, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.000493, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.029368, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.029511, "worst_return": -0.02053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021004, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.053781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.026144, "worst_return": 0.001056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.001655, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057312, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.03564, "worst_return": -0.034899, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.010848, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.069315, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068984, "worst_return": -0.113941, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02123, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005964, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000419, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038893, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013698, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016283, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003655, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021811, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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23.906891, 23.872443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.903067, "volume": 335007, "typical_volume": 394394.25, "trend": 23.825461, "fair_value": 22.563995, "relative_strength": -6.685361, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.834485, "energy": 33.372206, "activity_lines": [ 23.996141, 23.983849, 23.911248, 23.878247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.639268, "volume": 402636, "typical_volume": 397423.5, "trend": 23.828371, "fair_value": 22.57755, "relative_strength": -7.015419, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.081022, "energy": 9.499374, "activity_lines": [ 23.869611, 23.930327, 23.891469, 23.866235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.63, "volume": 476566, "typical_volume": 405364.65, "trend": 23.829277, "fair_value": 22.592432, "relative_strength": -7.822, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.7756, "energy": 24.866747, "activity_lines": [ 23.766872, 23.875534, 23.871919, 23.853437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.78, "volume": 533984, "typical_volume": 411422.6, "trend": 23.832888, "fair_value": 22.608561, "relative_strength": -10.151238, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.899394, "energy": 27.461365, "activity_lines": [ 23.742134, 23.848595, 23.867103, 23.850257 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }