{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fb09d53-ef31-4ec6-8a7b-69d10cffc8f4", "symbol": "CGL", "name": "iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.186, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.058, "architecture_energy": 50.542, "architecture_maturity": 60.567, "architecture_confidence": 68.825, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.44, "rotation_up": 26.47, "upward_expansion": 20.24, "deceleration": 66.56, "rotation_down": 49.53, "downward_expansion": 72.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.503333, 31.433273, 32.523048, 33.627462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.0, "trend_reference": 35.031333, "distance_from_trend": -0.057986, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.474231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.348357, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.655975, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.134086, "excess_performance": -0.254507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057986, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012079, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.348357, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217785, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11656, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137433, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134086, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.565246, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 567800, "relative_activity": 1.366842, "balance": 0.565246, "dry_up": 0.932693, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037249, "annualized_volatility": 0.245143, "from_high_reference": -0.224988, "from_low_reference": 0.280559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.031333, "fair_value_reference": 24.474231, "structural_low": 30.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00324, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.006002, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.078711, "worst_return": -0.042076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036995, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.028991, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.157504, "worst_return": -0.039943, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.115623, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.057162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.116656, "worst_return": 0.11127, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.16042, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.098405, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.359819, "worst_return": -0.0819, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009299, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067611, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01623, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02843, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050662, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033369, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.122577, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045845, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.183258, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002685, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.321729, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00491, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094318, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063487, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.14, "volume": 169100, "typical_volume": 188260.0, "trend": 15.630333, "fair_value": 15.054744, "relative_strength": 1.417284, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.06223, "energy": 88.126714, "activity_lines": [ 31.445333, 32.231454, 33.669286, 34.655828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.5, "volume": 359900, "typical_volume": 529215.0, "trend": 35.301, "fair_value": 24.167564, "relative_strength": -16.100018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.551838, "energy": 87.654241, "activity_lines": [ 31.1, 31.763818, 33.244905, 34.339634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.780001, "volume": 292500, "typical_volume": 468725.0, "trend": 35.178, "fair_value": 24.264039, "relative_strength": -15.462731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.223459, "energy": 71.42699, "activity_lines": [ 30.957334, 31.45, 32.894619, 34.047957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.75, "volume": 329600, "typical_volume": 445545.0, "trend": 35.089667, "fair_value": 24.361218, "relative_strength": -15.052346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.687544, "energy": 65.429059, "activity_lines": [ 30.846, 31.203455, 32.583238, 33.76228 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.0, "volume": 567800, "typical_volume": 415410.0, "trend": 35.031333, "fair_value": 24.474231, "relative_strength": -11.655975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.058486, "energy": 50.541702, "activity_lines": [ 31.503333, 31.433273, 32.523048, 33.627462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }