{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fb69287-7220-4cf4-96d2-84f39af799fa", "symbol": "RMC", "name": "Resimac Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.168, "architecture_energy": 60.464, "architecture_maturity": 21.385, "architecture_confidence": 89.843, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.58, "rotation_up": 18.16, "upward_expansion": 10.37, "deceleration": 47.7, "rotation_down": 66.76, "downward_expansion": 86.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.794333, 0.804273, 0.829619, 0.85144 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.79, "trend_reference": 0.870349, "distance_from_trend": -0.092318, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.7518, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050811, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.903505, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021015, "excess_performance": -0.08472, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092318, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027616, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050811, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159035, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185672, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021015, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.221298, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 510127, "relative_activity": 1.207296, "balance": 0.221298, "dry_up": 1.323448, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041383, "annualized_volatility": 0.286179, "from_high_reference": -0.27675, "from_low_reference": 0.04679 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.870349, "fair_value_reference": 0.7518, "structural_low": 0.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.015927, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.010426, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.283237, "worst_return": -0.146259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.087666, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.030415, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.26854, "worst_return": -0.287426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.019451, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.035499, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.445088, "worst_return": -0.383287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024096, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041177, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.213864, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010472, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.661988, "energy": 78.499782, "activity_lines": [ 0.811, 0.824091, 0.851262, 0.867469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.785, "volume": 535490, "typical_volume": 418123.55, "trend": 0.874267, "fair_value": 0.749452, "relative_strength": -11.803618, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.568473, "energy": 77.476842, "activity_lines": [ 0.801, 0.814727, 0.842571, 0.861548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8, "volume": 377443, "typical_volume": 416304.6, "trend": 0.8724, "fair_value": 0.750774, "relative_strength": -12.157653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.352971, "energy": 62.685305, "activity_lines": [ 0.799, 0.809818, 0.836262, 0.856756 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.79, "volume": 510127, "typical_volume": 422536.7, "trend": 0.870349, "fair_value": 0.7518, "relative_strength": -15.903505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.167873, "energy": 60.464137, "activity_lines": [ 0.794333, 0.804273, 0.829619, 0.85144 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }