{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fb91d97-2625-4b78-b971-4dab143e0c5e", "symbol": "RIG", "name": "Transocean Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 59.494, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.703, "architecture_energy": 38.573, "architecture_maturity": 30.931, "architecture_confidence": 86.819, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.0, "rotation_up": 22.99, "upward_expansion": 9.97, "deceleration": 53.88, "rotation_down": 48.94, "downward_expansion": 74.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.274, 5.275636, 5.651857, 5.83314 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.26, "trend_reference": 5.886, "distance_from_trend": -0.106354, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.878141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07828, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.736018, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.024119, "excess_performance": -0.149744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106354, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075527, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07828, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200622, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04736, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.407874, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024119, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.393001, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172466952, "relative_activity": 0.998639, "balance": 0.393001, "dry_up": 1.213219, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106076, "annualized_volatility": 0.516808, "from_high_reference": -0.313316, "from_low_reference": 0.905728 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.886, "fair_value_reference": 4.878141, "structural_low": 4.8, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.051383, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.031734, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.131757, "worst_return": -0.120301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.015924, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.054248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.006757, "worst_return": -0.225564, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.131757, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.145691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.56051, "worst_return": -0.133835, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.049045, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.219921, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22973, "worst_return": -0.32782, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104712, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081203, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02673, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082524, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088586, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137255, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044231, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.299578, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041237, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.990228, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02924, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.126285, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153974, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039526, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.22, "volume": 54004684, "typical_volume": 72915760.25, "trend": 6.837333, "fair_value": 4.030474, "relative_strength": 37.075574, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.620983, 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59.202709, "activity_lines": [ 5.313333, 5.745455, 6.055905, 6.000946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.2, "volume": 180023281, "typical_volume": 168953903.55, "trend": 5.733, "fair_value": 4.959359, "relative_strength": -0.984851, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.668239, "energy": 62.696543, "activity_lines": [ 5.215333, 5.586364, 5.959, 5.96886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.14, "volume": 186410747, "typical_volume": 169170398.9, "trend": 5.772, "fair_value": 4.940385, "relative_strength": -1.322589, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.479134, "energy": 62.058325, "activity_lines": [ 5.147333, 5.446182, 5.862667, 5.930602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.35, "volume": 205080621, "typical_volume": 169046335.65, "trend": 5.816333, "fair_value": 4.919872, "relative_strength": 2.616837, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.657878, "energy": 45.2716, "activity_lines": [ 5.209333, 5.367091, 5.792714, 5.903376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.32, "volume": 274142489, "typical_volume": 174065905.45, "trend": 5.852333, "fair_value": 4.899551, "relative_strength": 0.242207, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.217485, "energy": 31.672133, "activity_lines": [ 5.258667, 5.313273, 5.722667, 5.871355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.26, "volume": 172466952, "typical_volume": 172701941.0, "trend": 5.886, "fair_value": 4.878141, "relative_strength": -4.736018, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.702883, "energy": 38.573071, "activity_lines": [ 5.274, 5.275636, 5.651857, 5.83314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }