{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fb9d1c8-c499-4126-922b-81ba1777b94d", "symbol": "AIPE", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY II EUR Credit PAB Opportunities UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 67.796, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.402, "architecture_energy": 22.201, "architecture_maturity": 23.614, "architecture_confidence": 72.041, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.69, "rotation_up": 24.37, "upward_expansion": 55.39, "deceleration": 87.35, "rotation_down": 43.37, "downward_expansion": 23.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.545733, 11.568082, 11.560148, 11.545725 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.581, "trend_reference": 11.541417, "distance_from_trend": 0.00343, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.074223, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045762, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.004833, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001466, "excess_performance": -0.172358, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00343, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002388, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045762, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022114, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001466, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.71787, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36460, "relative_activity": 0.936925, "balance": 0.71787, "dry_up": 1.007297, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006107, "annualized_volatility": 0.039324, "from_high_reference": -0.020717, "from_low_reference": 0.023509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.541417, "fair_value_reference": 11.074223, "structural_low": 11.315, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003963, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.035171, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.013697, "worst_return": -0.003453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011274, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.086694, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.012437, "worst_return": 0.000304, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.023851, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.087652, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.023851, "worst_return": 0.023851, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.037551, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.22527, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037551, "worst_return": 0.037551, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012352, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011746, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013697, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.020077, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005376, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019745, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00865, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0057, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006517, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012354, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005688, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.0835, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 10.1013, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 10.1293, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, 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"volume": 11296, "typical_volume": 38361.9, "trend": 11.5399, "fair_value": 11.064737, "relative_strength": -12.358661, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.874354, "energy": 14.903767, "activity_lines": [ 11.539233, 11.567991, 11.554764, 11.543073 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.581, "volume": 36460, "typical_volume": 38914.55, "trend": 11.541417, "fair_value": 11.074223, "relative_strength": -14.004833, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.402218, "energy": 22.201027, "activity_lines": [ 11.545733, 11.568082, 11.560148, 11.545725 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }