{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fc3b165-64b2-40a0-a62f-e11c01e8873a", "symbol": "ITEK", "name": "HAN-GINS Tech Megatrend Equal Weight UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.955, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.471, "architecture_energy": 21.681, "architecture_maturity": 69.917, "architecture_confidence": 74.716, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.33, "rotation_up": 18.57, "upward_expansion": 48.49, "deceleration": 85.1, "rotation_down": 44.93, "downward_expansion": 31.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.315866, 16.617418, 16.759238, 16.311381 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.771999, "trend_reference": 15.800867, "distance_from_trend": 0.061461, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.241538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.26662, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.638448, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.173359, "excess_performance": 0.002468, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061461, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039941, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.26662, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040358, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076384, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066952, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173359, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.296973, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27454, "relative_activity": 2.077283, "balance": 3.296973, "dry_up": 0.90029, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046112, "annualized_volatility": 0.264096, "from_high_reference": -0.097892, "from_low_reference": 0.26562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.800867, "fair_value_reference": 13.241538, "structural_low": 13.252, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.011212, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.00549, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.085825, "worst_return": -0.108459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029502, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.047573, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.045091, "worst_return": 0.018254, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.218788, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.10322, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263761, "worst_return": 0.15306, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04708, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024779, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048973, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009172, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.137668, "energy": 27.053527, "activity_lines": [ 16.759334, 17.150328, 16.727267, 16.209213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.16, "volume": 2226, "typical_volume": 11887.75, "trend": 15.739, "fair_value": 13.173295, "relative_strength": -8.024695, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.30887, "energy": 25.964547, "activity_lines": [ 16.4816, 16.933055, 16.736057, 16.238903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.858, "volume": 15714, "typical_volume": 12204.8, "trend": 15.7676, "fair_value": 13.20591, "relative_strength": -10.185533, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.902074, "energy": 22.366721, "activity_lines": [ 16.212533, 16.673927, 16.707524, 16.246581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.771999, "volume": 27454, "typical_volume": 13216.3, "trend": 15.800867, "fair_value": 13.241538, "relative_strength": -7.638448, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.471453, "energy": 21.680854, "activity_lines": [ 16.315866, 16.617418, 16.759238, 16.311381 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }