{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fc40876-df15-49b2-a4cf-a0fb8f40a3a6", "symbol": "MEGP", "name": "ME Group International plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.091, "architecture_energy": 27.974, "architecture_maturity": 76.348, "architecture_confidence": 82.915, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.94, "rotation_up": 27.11, "upward_expansion": 16.56, "deceleration": 46.85, "rotation_down": 33.47, "downward_expansion": 66.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 113.8, 110.749091, 118.801991, 124.250401 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 122.2, "trend_reference": 130.349368, "distance_from_trend": -0.062519, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 170.327162, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.282557, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.410025, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.105131, "excess_performance": -0.156366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062519, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108617, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 99.688, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0064, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.019086, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.216216, "worst_return": -0.154607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.110694, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.075036, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.284615, "worst_return": -0.244523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036826, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.060785, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.406522, "worst_return": -0.161195, "sufficient": false }, { 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"gate": "down", "direction": -67.886104, "energy": 84.683029, "activity_lines": [ 106.28, 116.773697, 127.370411, 131.466929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 103.4, "volume": 4064607, "typical_volume": 2929098.7, "trend": 135.242956, "fair_value": 171.489528, "relative_strength": -38.683681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.116059, "energy": 85.345686, "activity_lines": [ 105.253333, 112.829091, 124.578485, 129.293944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 115.4, "volume": 14128684, "typical_volume": 3054342.55, "trend": 133.897949, "fair_value": 171.229359, "relative_strength": -31.142426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.642056, "energy": 63.732324, "activity_lines": [ 108.32, 111.84, 123.122531, 128.013753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 106.2, "volume": 4338327, "typical_volume": 3271258.9, "trend": 132.406226, "fair_value": 170.88973, "relative_strength": -36.328079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.443729, "energy": 52.128225, "activity_lines": [ 107.933333, 109.574546, 120.89113, 126.226789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 110.8, "volume": 4780696, "typical_volume": 3510293.7, "trend": 131.227784, "fair_value": 170.593673, "relative_strength": -33.237865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.282798, "energy": 40.88316, "activity_lines": [ 109.133333, 108.807273, 119.242379, 124.832839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 122.2, "volume": 11136377, "typical_volume": 4067112.55, "trend": 130.349368, "fair_value": 170.327162, "relative_strength": -25.410025, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.090832, "energy": 27.974474, "activity_lines": [ 113.8, 110.749091, 118.801991, 124.250401 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }