{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fc45561-ab8c-40e0-b050-ece742c1de59", "symbol": "SZ50", "name": "L\u00fcbke Kelber AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 72.047, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.147, "architecture_energy": 37.089, "architecture_maturity": 59.509, "architecture_confidence": 62.325, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.89, "rotation_up": 34.31, "upward_expansion": 70.75, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.84, "downward_expansion": 20.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.78, 9.804545, 9.733333, 9.703333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.75, "trend_reference": 9.688333, "distance_from_trend": 0.006365, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.258824, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.049599, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.014115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.06464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006365, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00484, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.049599, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025251, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080141, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02647, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 4.671053, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005523, "annualized_volatility": 0.041117, "from_high_reference": -0.071429, "from_low_reference": 0.059783 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.688333, "fair_value_reference": 10.258824, "structural_low": 9.55, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048387, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015385, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", 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9.728182, 9.66, 9.665376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 50.5, "trend": 9.691667, "fair_value": 10.275217, "relative_strength": -2.832487, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 64.032184, "energy": 87.408333, "activity_lines": [ 9.86, 9.770909, 9.684524, 9.679032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.9, "volume": 12, "typical_volume": 51.1, "trend": 9.695, "fair_value": 10.271983, "relative_strength": -1.771577, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.214977, "energy": 83.918815, "activity_lines": [ 9.88, 9.807273, 9.708333, 9.692473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.75, "volume": 130, "typical_volume": 7.6, "trend": 9.695, "fair_value": 10.267521, "relative_strength": -4.106738, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.893901, "energy": 67.318043, "activity_lines": [ 9.84, 9.81, 9.717143, 9.696022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.6, "trend": 9.691667, "fair_value": 10.263136, "relative_strength": -5.806599, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.074223, "energy": 56.490968, "activity_lines": [ 9.806667, 9.809091, 9.725476, 9.69957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.6, "trend": 9.688333, "fair_value": 10.258824, "relative_strength": -8.014115, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.146686, "energy": 37.088927, "activity_lines": [ 9.78, 9.804545, 9.733333, 9.703333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }