{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fc9f502-4584-4232-a1c0-10a4b9254055", "symbol": "CGR", "name": "CGN Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.523, "architecture_energy": 54.646, "architecture_maturity": 20.276, "architecture_confidence": 82.188, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.16, "rotation_up": 70.43, "upward_expansion": 53.37, "deceleration": 39.71, "rotation_down": 18.67, "downward_expansion": 18.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0836, 0.073618, 0.068629, 0.068243 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.08, "trend_reference": 0.0703, "distance_from_trend": 0.13798, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.113524, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.295302, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.819397, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.063706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.13798, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008126, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.295302, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154129, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.118194, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.187366, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.040449, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47921, "relative_activity": 0.22704, "balance": 1.040449, "dry_up": 2.516778, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100962, "annualized_volatility": 1.0247, "from_high_reference": -0.428571, "from_low_reference": 0.860465 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0703, "fair_value_reference": 0.113524, "structural_low": 0.049, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.104651, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.088462, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.104651, "worst_return": 0.104651, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.313953, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.296962, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.313953, "worst_return": -0.313953, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.430233, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.443592, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.430233, "worst_return": -0.430233, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.277778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.191919, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.39759, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.055, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 157507.7, "trend": 0.068233, "fair_value": 0.114273, "relative_strength": -16.347453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.98783, "energy": 80.894372, "activity_lines": [ 0.052867, 0.055818, 0.060057, 0.063742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.09, "volume": 1285368, "typical_volume": 214430.7, "trend": 0.069067, "fair_value": 0.114104, "relative_strength": 35.848173, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.157742, "energy": 9.832462, "activity_lines": [ 0.065267, 0.061527, 0.062648, 0.065146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.089, "volume": 297247, "typical_volume": 225529.5, "trend": 0.069933, "fair_value": 0.113931, "relative_strength": 33.808425, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.189834, "energy": 47.625959, "activity_lines": [ 0.074733, 0.0666, 0.065048, 0.066432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.088, "volume": 494318, "typical_volume": 240137.6, "trend": 0.07, "fair_value": 0.113753, "relative_strength": 27.982542, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.12476, "energy": 56.934988, "activity_lines": [ 0.081667, 0.071036, 0.067262, 0.067598 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.08, "volume": 47921, "typical_volume": 211068.9, "trend": 0.0703, "fair_value": 0.113524, "relative_strength": 11.819397, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.523246, "energy": 54.646403, "activity_lines": [ 0.0836, 0.073618, 0.068629, 0.068243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }