{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fce4f74-b1b1-43fb-b75a-60890508a69a", "symbol": "MICEL", "name": "MIC Electronics Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.236, "architecture_energy": 48.351, "architecture_maturity": 11.098, "architecture_confidence": 76.86, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.3, "rotation_up": 16.04, "upward_expansion": 25.21, "deceleration": 50.17, "rotation_down": 65.13, "downward_expansion": 54.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.374666, 38.36509, 40.363524, 40.028645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 37.080002, "trend_reference": 39.603667, "distance_from_trend": -0.063723, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.050385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.313973, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.180058, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.075081, "excess_performance": -0.031372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063723, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046055, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.313973, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.361214, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161801, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.337935, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075081, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.229874, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1074231, "relative_activity": 0.232477, "balance": 0.229874, "dry_up": 0.207039, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087648, "annualized_volatility": 0.613182, "from_high_reference": -0.553091, "from_low_reference": 0.237237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.603667, "fair_value_reference": 54.050385, "structural_low": 29.969999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.059748, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019803, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.059748, "worst_return": -0.059748, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.015723, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058055, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015723, "worst_return": 0.015723, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.286164, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.418272, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.286164, "worst_return": -0.286164, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029631, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.163634, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166356, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070008, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118303, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115164, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053082, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.213365, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025159, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 29.0, "volume": 335071, "typical_volume": 862144.45, "trend": 17.875, "fair_value": 11.271795, "relative_strength": 73.430152, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"activity_lines": [ 39.581333, 41.246545, 41.421143, 40.723355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.939999, "volume": 1008221, "typical_volume": 5051406.65, "trend": 40.232, "fair_value": 53.863397, "relative_strength": -14.711307, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.130803, "energy": 27.055175, "activity_lines": [ 38.763333, 40.296, 41.222143, 40.562602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.169998, "volume": 680353, "typical_volume": 4880885.25, "trend": 39.939667, "fair_value": 53.902949, "relative_strength": -16.250418, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.26255, "energy": 44.741793, "activity_lines": [ 37.637332, 39.33509, 40.850095, 40.300537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.369999, "volume": 1063952, "typical_volume": 4752268.35, "trend": 39.724666, "fair_value": 53.985128, "relative_strength": -12.937687, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.008981, "energy": 43.76639, "activity_lines": [ 37.652665, 38.923454, 40.679952, 40.199269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.080002, "volume": 1074231, "typical_volume": 4620805.8, "trend": 39.603667, "fair_value": 54.050385, "relative_strength": -16.180058, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.235654, "energy": 48.351474, "activity_lines": [ 37.374666, 38.36509, 40.363524, 40.028645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }