{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fce8441-9505-4d97-8ab4-565000c1fc3c", "symbol": "HLG", "name": "Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.893, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.092, "architecture_energy": 79.731, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.383, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.39, "rotation_up": 77.76, "upward_expansion": 94.0, "deceleration": 41.99, "rotation_down": 9.55, "downward_expansion": 18.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.592667, 10.418727, 10.248963, 10.101331 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.65, "trend_reference": 9.919166, "distance_from_trend": 0.073679, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.13493, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.492657, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.091838, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.091221, "excess_performance": 0.062947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073679, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029835, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.492657, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039855, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.080918, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073627, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091221, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.828647, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130221, "relative_activity": 1.457336, "balance": 1.828647, "dry_up": 1.278609, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028819, "annualized_volatility": 0.189023, "from_high_reference": -0.013889, "from_low_reference": 0.410156 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.919166, "fair_value_reference": 7.13493, "structural_low": 8.934262, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.015152, "positive_rate": 0.580645, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": 0.007752, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.205273, "worst_return": -0.058824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.027211, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.022981, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.266932, "worst_return": -0.088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.128983, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.104887, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.320674, "worst_return": -0.073009, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.057781, "energy": 61.491587, "activity_lines": [ 10.260667, 10.167455, 10.060312, 9.950678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.58, "volume": 109906, "typical_volume": 92184.15, "trend": 9.84816, "fair_value": 7.061404, "relative_strength": 8.663904, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.363791, "energy": 69.499872, "activity_lines": [ 10.385333, 10.249455, 10.122722, 10.000221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.65, "volume": 112932, "typical_volume": 93938.2, "trend": 9.884634, "fair_value": 7.097621, "relative_strength": 9.525136, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.721245, "energy": 77.830912, "activity_lines": [ 10.508, 10.34, 10.189003, 10.051953 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.65, "volume": 130221, "typical_volume": 89355.5, "trend": 9.919166, "fair_value": 7.13493, "relative_strength": 8.091838, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.09213, "energy": 79.731032, "activity_lines": [ 10.592667, 10.418727, 10.248963, 10.101331 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }