{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fcfdaad-b294-4861-a17e-5f5b4377cd0a", "symbol": "LRC2", "name": "LAM RESEARCH CORP", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.317, "architecture_energy": 29.981, "architecture_maturity": 68.363, "architecture_confidence": 94.036, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.06, "rotation_up": 20.53, "upward_expansion": 55.85, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 41.79, "downward_expansion": 21.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 269.439994, 287.446112, 280.74676, 263.243735 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 268.799988, "trend_reference": 240.637446, "distance_from_trend": 0.117033, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 112.947709, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.379862, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.956767, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.445534, "excess_performance": 0.271287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117033, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.27183, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.379862, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.189568, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.369569, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.445534, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.247759, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1029, "relative_activity": 1.93512, "balance": 1.247759, "dry_up": 1.990127, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108645, "annualized_volatility": 0.501205, "from_high_reference": -0.219286, "from_low_reference": 2.323352 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 240.637446, "fair_value_reference": 112.947709, "structural_low": 167.259995, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.081228, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.102326, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.250379, "worst_return": -0.066186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.055015, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.112208, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.802257, "worst_return": -0.131285, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005419, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.228677, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.495511, "worst_return": -0.135589, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 46.23802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.032025, "energy": 77.005545, "activity_lines": [ 321.563432, 308.206017, 275.801416, 254.097572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 270.600006, "volume": 1158, "typical_volume": 413.75, "trend": 230.207816, "fair_value": 108.994032, "relative_strength": 30.184472, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.694043, "energy": 51.752403, "activity_lines": [ 303.756671, 304.079983, 277.881377, 256.971165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 272.25, "volume": 1308, "typical_volume": 443.5, "trend": 234.321431, "fair_value": 110.334203, "relative_strength": 27.316354, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.422824, "energy": 32.392796, "activity_lines": [ 289.796669, 299.841358, 279.786966, 259.683564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 258.549988, "volume": 738, "typical_volume": 480.4, "trend": 237.845889, "fair_value": 111.599322, "relative_strength": 19.365877, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.864956, "energy": 29.853266, "activity_lines": [ 275.399998, 292.643795, 279.949839, 261.246696 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 268.799988, "volume": 1029, "typical_volume": 531.75, "trend": 240.637446, "fair_value": 112.947709, "relative_strength": 18.956767, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.317004, "energy": 29.980921, "activity_lines": [ 269.439994, 287.446112, 280.74676, 263.243735 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }