{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fd35022-8748-4a7e-8642-5914f23e4388", "symbol": "IMU", "name": "Imugene Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.582, "architecture_energy": 63.42, "architecture_maturity": 67.339, "architecture_confidence": 92.489, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.94, "rotation_up": 20.09, "upward_expansion": 11.06, "deceleration": 45.58, "rotation_down": 65.89, "downward_expansion": 86.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0884, 0.096327, 0.10349, 0.121673 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.085, "trend_reference": 0.159267, "distance_from_trend": -0.466304, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.358526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.937432, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -64.784595, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.653061, "excess_performance": -0.716767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.466304, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321789, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.937432, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001881, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.647846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021168, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.653061, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.198101, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8710114, "relative_activity": 0.930005, "balance": 0.198101, "dry_up": 1.505724, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.242081, "annualized_volatility": 1.067436, "from_high_reference": -0.815217, "from_low_reference": 0.024096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.159267, "fair_value_reference": 1.358526, "structural_low": 0.083, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.098462, "positive_rate": 0.261905, "directional_follow_through": 0.738095, "median_excess_return": -0.099465, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 1.282609, "worst_return": -0.38914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.306122, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.314828, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.590164, "worst_return": -0.608511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.378183, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.395842, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.605263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.228261, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113924, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.09, "volume": 10408439, "typical_volume": 9457937.1, "trend": 0.1781, "fair_value": 1.397538, "relative_strength": -61.762331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.190408, "energy": 50.677565, "activity_lines": [ 0.100267, 0.103255, 0.109805, 0.13303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.085, "volume": 16055974, "typical_volume": 9849456.35, "trend": 0.167933, "fair_value": 1.377378, "relative_strength": -64.211904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.068963, "energy": 59.439345, "activity_lines": [ 0.093933, 0.099382, 0.10641, 0.127024 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.085, "volume": 8710114, "typical_volume": 9365661.2, "trend": 0.159267, "fair_value": 1.358526, "relative_strength": -64.784595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.581966, "energy": 63.420345, "activity_lines": [ 0.0884, 0.096327, 0.10349, 0.121673 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }