{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fd4cb8d-7398-459c-a806-763a1ee11ab2", "symbol": "KAVDEFENCE", "name": "KAVVERI DFS & WIR TEC LTD", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.017, "architecture_energy": 67.077, "architecture_maturity": 12.133, "architecture_confidence": 85.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.81, "rotation_up": 9.67, "upward_expansion": 14.45, "deceleration": 37.26, "rotation_down": 72.95, "downward_expansion": 90.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.748668, 59.72091, 61.438619, 62.136688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 56.900002, "trend_reference": 63.339, "distance_from_trend": -0.101659, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.625449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.220364, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.335848, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.117419, "excess_performance": -0.07371, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101659, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109661, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.220364, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.426314, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213334, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.117419, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.580431, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 449729, "relative_activity": 1.436133, "balance": 0.580431, "dry_up": 1.149831, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083642, "annualized_volatility": 0.594709, "from_high_reference": -0.650642, "from_low_reference": 0.10464 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.339, "fair_value_reference": 46.625449, "structural_low": 51.509998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.000785, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.013833, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.613861, "worst_return": -0.204545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.126664, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.13929, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.405172, "worst_return": -0.179879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.049499, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026582, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.497348, "worst_return": -0.211429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059044, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13728, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1174, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.66321, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.291821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095525, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010392, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102971, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003677, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.0, "volume": 102693, "typical_volume": 131797.05, "trend": 6.568333, "fair_value": 6.270513, "relative_strength": -1.406488, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 62.849998, "volume": 418158, "typical_volume": 312587.45, "trend": 65.391333, "fair_value": 45.353333, "relative_strength": -14.965848, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.873458, "energy": 12.965782, "activity_lines": [ 63.361332, 63.159272, 63.324761, 63.948709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 59.630001, "volume": 399976, "typical_volume": 309834.6, "trend": 65.081666, "fair_value": 45.684295, "relative_strength": -19.835661, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.078997, "energy": 25.795977, "activity_lines": [ 62.195333, 62.45109, 63.001714, 63.57701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.060001, "volume": 321723, "typical_volume": 310686.55, "trend": 64.436333, "fair_value": 45.998782, "relative_strength": -21.54359, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.398034, "energy": 49.955085, "activity_lines": [ 60.226, 61.452909, 62.455047, 63.059483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.110001, "volume": 268863, "typical_volume": 308826.85, "trend": 63.877, "fair_value": 46.312308, "relative_strength": -23.43394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.693363, "energy": 59.615289, "activity_lines": [ 58.799334, 60.554545, 61.949095, 62.586817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.900002, "volume": 449729, "typical_volume": 313152.8, "trend": 63.339, "fair_value": 46.625449, "relative_strength": -24.335848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.017071, "energy": 67.07739, "activity_lines": [ 57.748668, 59.72091, 61.438619, 62.136688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }