{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fd564d9-a092-46e0-a595-c0b27427f700", "symbol": "GROBTEA", "name": "The Grob Tea Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.222, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.646, "architecture_energy": 12.348, "architecture_maturity": 18.306, "architecture_confidence": 60.793, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.46, "rotation_up": 17.13, "upward_expansion": 21.65, "deceleration": 60.19, "rotation_down": 47.11, "downward_expansion": 57.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 904.882685, 909.201047, 907.68163, 906.778877 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 900.0, "trend_reference": 911.905453, "distance_from_trend": -0.013056, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 979.678206, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081331, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.115117, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.058577, "excess_performance": -0.014868, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013056, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042664, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081331, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033655, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061151, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008994, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.058577, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.727495, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 767, "relative_activity": 1.100588, "balance": 0.727495, "dry_up": 1.163008, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053934, "annualized_volatility": 0.189705, "from_high_reference": -0.271962, "from_low_reference": 0.118012 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 911.905453, "fair_value_reference": 979.678206, "structural_low": 805.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.008698, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.015229, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.162016, "worst_return": -0.15832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.028965, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.003903, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.14182, "worst_return": -0.113255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.028093, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023551, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.225536, "worst_return": -0.166676, 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-0.130034, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079816, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070027, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.236476, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.207679, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041565, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 3.8e-05, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097539, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072906, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.087033, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055682, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 891.700928, "volume": 1679, "typical_volume": 5391.85, "trend": 797.889887, "fair_value": 886.055655, "relative_strength": -0.11429, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"relative_strength": -6.115117, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.646214, "energy": 12.347921, "activity_lines": [ 904.882685, 909.201047, 907.68163, 906.778877 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }