{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fd79d59-93dd-4016-a8e3-92f9c24bee2c", "symbol": "BHARATRAS", "name": "Bharat Rasayan Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.375, "architecture_energy": 52.035, "architecture_maturity": 69.796, "architecture_confidence": 80.298, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.3, "rotation_up": 17.14, "upward_expansion": 7.33, "deceleration": 47.32, "rotation_down": 65.26, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1313.63999, 1332.056366, 1367.627618, 1391.961722 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1358.199951, "trend_reference": 1464.290007, "distance_from_trend": -0.072452, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2329.158527, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.416871, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.933926, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.257246, "excess_performance": -0.213537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072452, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200827, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.416871, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014637, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.279339, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041401, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.257246, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.446334, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 93436, "relative_activity": 1.562263, "balance": 2.446334, "dry_up": 0.845784, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0504, "annualized_volatility": 0.387516, "from_high_reference": -0.547199, "from_low_reference": 0.129011 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1464.290007, "fair_value_reference": 2329.158527, "structural_low": 1203.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.004109, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.015231, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.276131, "worst_return": -0.190838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.026332, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.089932, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.274504, "worst_return": -0.359582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.040435, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.12244, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.205744, "worst_return": 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"2026-07-31", "close": 1280.300049, "volume": 29993, "typical_volume": 59986.1, "trend": 1489.240007, "fair_value": 2334.751881, "relative_strength": -32.428489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.642586, "energy": 77.059649, "activity_lines": [ 1298.153345, 1332.920013, 1370.205718, 1400.415919 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1358.199951, "volume": 93436, "typical_volume": 59808.1, "trend": 1464.290007, "fair_value": 2329.158527, "relative_strength": -27.933926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.374587, "energy": 52.035159, "activity_lines": [ 1313.63999, 1332.056366, 1367.627618, 1391.961722 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }