{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fe40c60-fcbe-499d-98cb-0a7ba84d2c41", "symbol": "5CR", "name": "Asiatic Group (Holdings) Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.205, "architecture_energy": 71.481, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.211, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.79, "rotation_up": 8.63, "upward_expansion": 15.48, "deceleration": 37.12, "rotation_down": 75.97, "downward_expansion": 91.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0022, 0.002782, 0.003176, 0.003265 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.002, "trend_reference": 0.003367, "distance_from_trend": -0.405941, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.002756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.274419, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.536394, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.654835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.405941, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056075, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.274419, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.770821, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.495364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.605127, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81000, "relative_activity": 0.03728, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.38007, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.5, "annualized_volatility": 1.204367, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.003367, "fair_value_reference": 0.002756, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.071429, "median_excess_return": 0.021384, "regime_survival": 0.678571, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": 0.020904, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.14308, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.25, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.224207, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": 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"close": 0.004, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1909300.0, "trend": 0.003633, "fair_value": 0.002731, "relative_strength": 6.616955, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.109706, "energy": 38.282825, "activity_lines": [ 0.003933, 0.0038, 0.003648, 0.003611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.004, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1909300.0, "trend": 0.003633, "fair_value": 0.002744, "relative_strength": 5.505503, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.53326, "energy": 49.638977, "activity_lines": [ 0.004, 0.003836, 0.00369, 0.003634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.003, "volume": 2240200, "typical_volume": 2021310.0, "trend": 0.0036, "fair_value": 0.00275, "relative_strength": -23.750155, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.090126, "energy": 6.810659, "activity_lines": [ 0.003667, 0.003691, 0.003638, 0.003594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.003, "volume": 921700, "typical_volume": 2066895.0, "trend": 0.003567, "fair_value": 0.002756, "relative_strength": -23.956944, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.084677, "energy": 17.256938, "activity_lines": [ 0.0034, 0.003564, 0.00359, 0.003555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.002, "volume": 510500, "typical_volume": 2079205.0, "trend": 0.0035, "fair_value": 0.002756, "relative_strength": -49.551473, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.049643, "energy": 54.50762, "activity_lines": [ 0.002867, 0.003273, 0.003448, 0.003454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.002, "volume": 1790000, "typical_volume": 2168705.0, "trend": 0.003433, "fair_value": 0.002756, "relative_strength": -49.408261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.13804, "energy": 62.224147, "activity_lines": [ 0.002467, 0.003018, 0.00331, 0.003357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.002, "volume": 81000, "typical_volume": 2172755.0, "trend": 0.003367, "fair_value": 0.002756, "relative_strength": -49.536394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.204916, "energy": 71.480682, "activity_lines": [ 0.0022, 0.002782, 0.003176, 0.003265 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }