{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fe6224e-dd0b-41af-beca-15b286997add", "symbol": "DECZ", "name": "TRUESHARES STRUCTURED OUTCOME (DECEMBER) ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.887, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.507, "architecture_energy": 57.411, "architecture_maturity": 44.543, "architecture_confidence": 82.492, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.54, "rotation_up": 56.95, "upward_expansion": 81.53, "deceleration": 58.64, "rotation_down": 25.41, "downward_expansion": 8.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.518847, 43.280995, 42.962995, 42.308581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 44.4306, "trend_reference": 41.572067, "distance_from_trend": 0.068761, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.757048, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242569, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.704144, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093297, "excess_performance": -0.032328, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068761, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02503, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242569, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004596, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027041, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003203, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093297, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.081812, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21393, "relative_activity": 0.347351, "balance": 7.081812, "dry_up": 0.243668, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018131, "annualized_volatility": 0.114554, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.175879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.572067, "fair_value_reference": 35.757048, "structural_low": 37.985, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.008008, "positive_rate": 0.685714, "directional_follow_through": 0.685714, "median_excess_return": -0.003021, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.051393, "worst_return": -0.085232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.040446, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.015013, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.065091, "worst_return": -0.047054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.057859, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.02361, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.117811, "worst_return": -0.008511, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 41.351383, "fair_value": 35.562624, "relative_strength": -2.219622, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.069407, "energy": 42.265693, "activity_lines": [ 42.994327, 42.999716, 42.601989, 41.996853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.2024, "volume": 33275, "typical_volume": 61515.05, "trend": 41.449827, "fair_value": 35.655708, "relative_strength": -2.16681, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.774113, "energy": 45.020451, "activity_lines": [ 43.0853, 43.029395, 42.73335, 42.116273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.4306, "volume": 21393, "typical_volume": 61589.0, "trend": 41.572067, "fair_value": 35.757048, "relative_strength": -2.704144, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.50707, "energy": 57.411101, "activity_lines": [ 43.518847, 43.280995, 42.962995, 42.308581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }