{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ff0c505-b0fa-4484-a46f-1bc49c26561a", "symbol": "4145", "name": "Al Obeikan Glass Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.045, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.808, "architecture_energy": 13.794, "architecture_maturity": 18.081, "architecture_confidence": 70.872, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.48, "rotation_up": 28.5, "upward_expansion": 22.38, "deceleration": 33.18, "rotation_down": 36.69, "downward_expansion": 56.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.439334, 24.504728, 24.450429, 24.540796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 24.01, "trend_reference": 24.75, "distance_from_trend": -0.029899, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.017914, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.384642, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.336127, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.065759, "excess_performance": -0.033929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029899, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03891, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.384642, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004329, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083361, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012885, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065759, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.714834, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 535396, "relative_activity": 0.589977, "balance": 0.714834, "dry_up": 0.82205, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061321, "annualized_volatility": 0.311037, "from_high_reference": -0.37539, "from_low_reference": 0.057709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.75, "fair_value_reference": 39.017914, "structural_low": 22.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.021956, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.048004, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.011957, "worst_return": -0.217726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.039792, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.03062, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.070103, "worst_return": -0.406551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.208448, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.209984, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.028571, "worst_return": -0.385913, 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.182473, "energy": 14.092557, "activity_lines": [ 24.514, 24.155454, 24.415857, 24.598129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.040001, "volume": 1271375, "typical_volume": 855205.95, "trend": 24.902334, "fair_value": 39.641999, "relative_strength": -1.469841, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.120899, "energy": 17.708597, "activity_lines": [ 25.088667, 24.514364, 24.563809, 24.672258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.4, "volume": 723883, "typical_volume": 885251.3, "trend": 24.859, "fair_value": 39.429927, "relative_strength": -7.514161, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.744814, "energy": 14.109092, "activity_lines": [ 24.983334, 24.570727, 24.553952, 24.639849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.120001, "volume": 453340, "typical_volume": 887585.1, "trend": 24.806334, "fair_value": 39.218724, "relative_strength": -6.15657, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.282863, "energy": 13.329525, "activity_lines": [ 24.745334, 24.557455, 24.509857, 24.592172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.01, "volume": 535396, "typical_volume": 907486.1, "trend": 24.75, "fair_value": 39.017914, "relative_strength": -8.336127, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.808052, "energy": 13.7944, "activity_lines": [ 24.439334, 24.504728, 24.450429, 24.540796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }