{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ff11a21-4eb5-43dc-9103-4f5c8d495454", "symbol": "SRSA", "name": "iShares MSCI South Africa UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.457, "architecture_energy": 17.242, "architecture_maturity": 26.262, "architecture_confidence": 61.759, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.9, "rotation_up": 24.33, "upward_expansion": 15.77, "deceleration": 57.87, "rotation_down": 35.48, "downward_expansion": 63.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 4341.933333, 4324.281818, 4377.678571, 4437.254839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4643.0, "trend_reference": 4540.15, "distance_from_trend": 0.022653, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3246.549679, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.430134, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.916357, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.032305, "excess_performance": -0.08354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022653, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00011, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.430134, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065291, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009164, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086533, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032305, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.23119, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8656, "relative_activity": 0.142944, "balance": 0.23119, "dry_up": 0.321153, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045221, "annualized_volatility": 0.370101, "from_high_reference": -0.13393, "from_low_reference": 0.341132 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4540.15, "fair_value_reference": 3246.549679, "structural_low": 3934.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.019414, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.011115, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.109259, "worst_return": -0.05869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042356, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.007221, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.227529, "worst_return": -0.093804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.097197, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.069392, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169543, "worst_return": 0.023369, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 4223.0, 4285.909091, 4374.595238, 4452.362366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4211.5, "volume": 11977, "typical_volume": 63035.5, "trend": 4539.65, "fair_value": 3232.190705, "relative_strength": -9.683699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.63439, "energy": 61.639965, "activity_lines": [ 4207.233333, 4264.145455, 4355.02381, 4430.587097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4643.0, "volume": 8656, "typical_volume": 60555.3, "trend": 4540.15, "fair_value": 3246.549679, "relative_strength": -0.916357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.45722, "energy": 17.241616, "activity_lines": [ 4341.933333, 4324.281818, 4377.678571, 4437.254839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }