{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ff167c6-34d8-4301-b4f7-433ede325e24", "symbol": "ORBIA", "name": "Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.895, "architecture_energy": 69.282, "architecture_maturity": 16.915, "architecture_confidence": 87.318, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.53, "rotation_up": 70.97, "upward_expansion": 91.08, "deceleration": 42.74, "rotation_down": 12.45, "downward_expansion": 15.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.833334, 23.273637, 22.766905, 22.197076 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.76, "trend_reference": 21.377667, "distance_from_trend": 0.11144, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.490222, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056459, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 21.819338, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.141759, "excess_performance": 0.196426, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.11144, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10418, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056459, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084746, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.218193, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0354, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141759, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.013364, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17433275, "relative_activity": 1.255761, "balance": 1.013364, "dry_up": 1.16898, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05439, "annualized_volatility": 0.323579, "from_high_reference": -0.040388, "from_low_reference": 0.95878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.377667, "fair_value_reference": 22.490222, "structural_low": 17.65, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.001919, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016888, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.096009, "worst_return": -0.090599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035985, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.054717, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.173308, "worst_return": -0.118716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.076023, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.002544, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.344697, "worst_return": -0.111438, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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21.632417, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.666439, "energy": 39.975189, "activity_lines": [ 22.631334, 22.424182, 22.108477, 21.562452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.17, "volume": 20323491, "typical_volume": 13811360.3, "trend": 20.837, "fair_value": 22.658411, "relative_strength": 27.366136, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.847715, "energy": 61.140406, "activity_lines": [ 23.229334, 22.749819, 22.360238, 21.795119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.440001, "volume": 17128255, "typical_volume": 13906139.95, "trend": 21.132667, "fair_value": 22.574902, "relative_strength": 26.511204, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.243808, "energy": 70.094677, "activity_lines": [ 23.719334, 23.09491, 22.609905, 22.02757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.76, "volume": 17433275, "typical_volume": 13882641.6, "trend": 21.377667, "fair_value": 22.490222, "relative_strength": 21.819338, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.895336, "energy": 69.281849, "activity_lines": [ 23.833334, 23.273637, 22.766905, 22.197076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }