{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5ff50c50-3f46-45fa-ba2b-a38dc024686c",
    "symbol": "SPGI34",
    "name": "S&P Global Inc.",
    "exchange": "SAO",
    "country": "BR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^BVSP",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -46.086,
    "architecture_energy": 25.716,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.354,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.168,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 39.13,
        "rotation_up": 20.88,
        "upward_expansion": 16.8,
        "deceleration": 56.65,
        "rotation_down": 49.01,
        "downward_expansion": 62.13
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        59.424668,
        60.102999,
        59.763842,
        60.300351
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 57.830002,
    "trend_reference": 62.240793,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.070867,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 69.120919,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16335,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -19.230788,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.095663,
    "excess_performance": -0.038614,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.070867,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.074965,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.16335,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003656,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.192308,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.157568,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.095663,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.22861,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1420,
      "relative_activity": 0.103569,
      "balance": 0.22861,
      "dry_up": 0.416136,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.050619,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.3664,
      "from_high_reference": -0.314595,
      "from_low_reference": 0.110262
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 62.240793,
      "fair_value_reference": 69.120919,
      "structural_low": 52.08681,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 19,
        "median_return": 0.023525,
        "positive_rate": 0.631579,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.368421,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003685,
        "regime_survival": 0.789474,
        "best_return": 0.140249,
        "worst_return": -0.097483,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.065052,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.053191,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.089341,
        "worst_return": -0.108288,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.03201,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.070711,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.047085,
        "worst_return": -0.1672,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.131786,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.307494,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": -0.066893,
        "worst_return": -0.19668,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.035642,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-15",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.001667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.091541,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.081452,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.067931,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.05201,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-22",
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        "return": -0.007813,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-09-05",
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        "return": -0.022298,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-09-12",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "trend": 68.216382,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "relative_strength": -28.87735,
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -22.379547,
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 131,
        "typical_volume": 13825.7,
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        "fair_value": 68.982197,
        "relative_strength": -14.625978,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 7.596379,
        "energy": 22.759841,
        "activity_lines": [
          62.225999,
          60.921637,
          60.226856,
          61.268316
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 59.580002,
        "volume": 823,
        "typical_volume": 13653.1,
        "trend": 63.632931,
        "fair_value": 69.037128,
        "relative_strength": -19.733902,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -13.603255,
        "energy": 22.312865,
        "activity_lines": [
          61.65,
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          60.137207,
          60.9621
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 58.549999,
        "volume": 20448,
        "typical_volume": 14242.7,
        "trend": 63.004178,
        "fair_value": 69.082937,
        "relative_strength": -21.770053,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -28.477783,
        "energy": 12.651115,
        "activity_lines": [
          60.666667,
          60.545815,
          59.978144,
          60.634169
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 57.830002,
        "volume": 1420,
        "typical_volume": 13710.65,
        "trend": 62.240793,
        "fair_value": 69.120919,
        "relative_strength": -19.230788,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -46.085844,
        "energy": 25.715909,
        "activity_lines": [
          59.424668,
          60.102999,
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          60.300351
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}