{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ffcf1ac-2502-44b3-97f0-577fd5416662", "symbol": "RAJSREESUG", "name": "Rajshree Sugars & Chemicals Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.579, "architecture_energy": 39.725, "architecture_maturity": 4.313, "architecture_confidence": 67.507, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.32, "rotation_up": 16.36, "upward_expansion": 23.16, "deceleration": 50.99, "rotation_down": 61.1, "downward_expansion": 52.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.228, 30.935455, 32.111286, 31.689312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.190001, "trend_reference": 31.088667, "distance_from_trend": -0.028907, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.150449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.40978, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.497367, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015814, "excess_performance": 0.059523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028907, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042601, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.40978, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10749, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104974, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099127, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015814, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.285795, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 244124, "relative_activity": 0.901888, "balance": 1.285795, "dry_up": 0.702823, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088949, "annualized_volatility": 0.43791, "from_high_reference": -0.392555, "from_low_reference": 0.224746 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.088667, "fair_value_reference": 51.150449, "structural_low": 24.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045862, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.029391, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.366197, "worst_return": -0.063882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.154058, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.052527, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2334, "worst_return": -0.190483, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.342052, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.374014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.535076, "worst_return": -0.327039, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089275, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.19879, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.245066, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", 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-8.544486, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.245645, "energy": 15.26083, "activity_lines": [ 31.846667, 32.730727, 32.697905, 31.954473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.029999, "volume": 146877, "typical_volume": 282993.95, "trend": 31.502667, "fair_value": 51.467756, "relative_strength": -6.294032, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.930944, "energy": 15.406343, "activity_lines": [ 31.8, 32.474727, 32.732381, 31.981785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.969999, "volume": 204684, "typical_volume": 276607.85, "trend": 31.329333, "fair_value": 51.373013, "relative_strength": -9.502682, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.596433, "energy": 25.996778, "activity_lines": [ 31.096666, 31.920727, 32.549571, 31.882903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.290001, "volume": 165279, "typical_volume": 274666.6, "trend": 31.151333, "fair_value": 51.264615, "relative_strength": -13.066491, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.35455, "energy": 40.054389, "activity_lines": [ 30.425333, 31.286182, 32.292333, 31.751333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.190001, "volume": 244124, "typical_volume": 270681.1, "trend": 31.088667, "fair_value": 51.150449, "relative_strength": -10.497367, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.579294, "energy": 39.725239, "activity_lines": [ 30.228, 30.935455, 32.111286, 31.689312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }