{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5fff2828-f28f-4dab-8397-cca6c46edcdf", "symbol": "V3AL", "name": "Vanguard ESG Global All Cap UCITS ETF (USD) Distributing", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.235, "architecture_energy": 48.604, "architecture_maturity": 52.403, "architecture_confidence": 81.65, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.33, "rotation_up": 45.46, "upward_expansion": 73.57, "deceleration": 91.03, "rotation_down": 28.87, "downward_expansion": 11.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.064933, 8.050268, 7.977628, 7.816733 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.287, "trend_reference": 7.639604, "distance_from_trend": 0.084742, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.21795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.332754, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.438788, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.123045, "excess_performance": 0.07181, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084742, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039228, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.332754, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003445, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034388, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02929, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123045, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.536395, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1500, "relative_activity": 0.039468, "balance": 3.536395, "dry_up": 0.126882, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023108, "annualized_volatility": 0.162851, "from_high_reference": -0.003966, "from_low_reference": 0.237736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.639604, "fair_value_reference": 6.21795, "structural_low": 6.709041, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.017224, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.011062, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.045477, "worst_return": -0.036983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040442, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.046478, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.087475, "worst_return": -0.073189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.117725, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.123466, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.156887, "worst_return": 0.106168, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.183745, 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"close": 7.927, "volume": 991, "typical_volume": 38352.75, "trend": 7.610203, "fair_value": 6.195197, "relative_strength": -0.693378, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.403459, "energy": 32.923631, "activity_lines": [ 7.9722, 8.002099, 7.925796, 7.773068 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.287, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 38005.9, "trend": 7.639604, "fair_value": 6.21795, "relative_strength": 3.438788, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.234781, "energy": 48.603936, "activity_lines": [ 8.064933, 8.050268, 7.977628, 7.816733 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }