{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6003befb-acb2-472b-91c1-f7d5ecb077a3", "symbol": "NWM", "name": "Norwest Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.879, "architecture_energy": 65.385, "architecture_maturity": 48.836, "architecture_confidence": 90.053, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 18.44, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 53.51, "rotation_down": 68.53, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006733, 0.007436, 0.008829, 0.010428 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.007, "trend_reference": 0.012867, "distance_from_trend": -0.455959, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.019858, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.64749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.63212, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.666667, "excess_performance": -0.730372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.455959, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088548, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.64749, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220244, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.476321, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.431802, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.666667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.18053, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1980038, "relative_activity": 0.590588, "balance": 0.18053, "dry_up": 1.135027, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.21978, "annualized_volatility": 0.679177, "from_high_reference": -0.754386, "from_low_reference": 0.4 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.012867, "fair_value_reference": 0.019858, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.322581, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.107067, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.875, "worst_return": -0.347826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.029851, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.03646, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.88, "worst_return": -0.553846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.053644, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046705, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.862069, "worst_return": -0.567164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.377778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.378378, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.409091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 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92.354003, "activity_lines": [ 0.0084, 0.009182, 0.010486, 0.012112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.007, "volume": 3473376, "typical_volume": 3774491.15, "trend": 0.013367, "fair_value": 0.020646, "relative_strength": -46.422758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.510307, "energy": 90.022771, "activity_lines": [ 0.0078, 0.008655, 0.010019, 0.011692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.007, "volume": 3894640, "typical_volume": 3722809.8, "trend": 0.0132, "fair_value": 0.020358, "relative_strength": -45.69905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.494736, "energy": 78.313451, "activity_lines": [ 0.0074, 0.008236, 0.00961, 0.011282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 5873355, "typical_volume": 3528070.7, "trend": 0.013033, "fair_value": 0.020095, "relative_strength": -54.050807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.883925, "energy": 84.809542, "activity_lines": [ 0.0068, 0.007709, 0.009152, 0.010817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.007, "volume": 1980038, "typical_volume": 3352653.2, "trend": 0.012867, "fair_value": 0.019858, "relative_strength": -47.63212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.878971, "energy": 65.38479, "activity_lines": [ 0.006733, 0.007436, 0.008829, 0.010428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }