{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6004008c-6af4-445c-8d24-949fd48c0062", "symbol": "IPKW", "name": "INVESCO INTERNATIONAL BUYBACK ACHIEVERS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.871, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.346, "architecture_energy": 88.415, "architecture_maturity": 9.8, "architecture_confidence": 64.822, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.69, "rotation_up": 84.25, "upward_expansion": 94.72, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.22, "downward_expansion": 19.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.260613, 59.069723, 58.417624, 58.007984 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 61.835, "trend_reference": 57.655079, "distance_from_trend": 0.072499, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.004356, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.405202, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.159788, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.052032, "excess_performance": -0.135422, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072499, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028098, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.405202, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00176, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049435, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052032, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.777219, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 530695, "relative_activity": 2.26036, "balance": 2.777219, "dry_up": 1.160942, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021911, "annualized_volatility": 0.146621, "from_high_reference": -0.002017, "from_low_reference": 0.249859 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.655079, "fair_value_reference": 44.004356, "structural_low": 53.995897, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.021694, "positive_rate": 0.69697, "directional_follow_through": 0.69697, "median_excess_return": 0.009402, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.055811, "worst_return": -0.065163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.026695, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.002565, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.157786, "worst_return": -0.037221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.088394, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.031652, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.196768, "worst_return": 0.010926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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57.638761, 57.808562, 57.423706, 57.165306 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 57.10188, "volume": 95859, "typical_volume": 304630.9, "trend": 56.62487, "fair_value": 42.799715, "relative_strength": -12.083623, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.317078, "energy": 13.357624, "activity_lines": [ 57.419024, 57.664734, 57.395491, 57.209136 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 56.0158, "volume": 139695, "typical_volume": 292986.45, "trend": 56.727145, "fair_value": 42.958264, "relative_strength": -9.555695, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.663988, "energy": 13.70924, "activity_lines": [ 56.889985, 57.338402, 57.267144, 57.169841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 57.26, "volume": 235502, "typical_volume": 278685.35, "trend": 56.871587, "fair_value": 43.125717, "relative_strength": -8.229777, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.61859, "energy": 15.5742, "activity_lines": [ 56.916606, 57.288729, 57.27044, 57.204219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 58.295, "volume": 117549, "typical_volume": 272490.55, "trend": 57.018437, "fair_value": 43.293195, "relative_strength": -8.113595, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.720687, "energy": 16.540296, "activity_lines": [ 57.354877, 57.420609, 57.378193, 57.296052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.461, "volume": 187791, "typical_volume": 265540.3, "trend": 57.152495, "fair_value": 43.461795, "relative_strength": -3.819094, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.50954, "energy": 23.201226, "activity_lines": [ 57.759899, 57.575424, 57.505511, 57.38912 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.06, "volume": 128452, "typical_volume": 236309.8, "trend": 57.284846, "fair_value": 43.629829, "relative_strength": -1.243148, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.775284, "energy": 53.10404, "activity_lines": [ 58.30432, 57.841985, 57.692581, 57.512185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.5843, "volume": 243341, "typical_volume": 229776.85, "trend": 57.449569, "fair_value": 43.814012, "relative_strength": 0.716394, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.423317, "energy": 76.175479, "activity_lines": [ 59.2263, 58.364469, 58.008965, 57.725053 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.835, "volume": 530695, "typical_volume": 234783.35, "trend": 57.655079, "fair_value": 44.004356, "relative_strength": -2.159788, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.345896, "energy": 88.414588, "activity_lines": [ 60.260613, 59.069723, 58.417624, 58.007984 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }