{ "ticker": { "uuid": "600415e2-563d-43ee-96c2-e27f87e334d6", "symbol": "SHWW", "name": "The Sherwin-Williams Company", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 48.025, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 52.446, "architecture_energy": 39.898, "architecture_maturity": 26.046, "architecture_confidence": 54.422, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.54, "rotation_up": 58.62, "upward_expansion": 48.37, "deceleration": 44.52, "rotation_down": 24.71, "downward_expansion": 13.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 300.380003, 296.661822, 287.144545, 285.462903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 319.799988, "trend_reference": 286.548643, "distance_from_trend": 0.116041, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 293.31813, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090284, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.311872, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.046857, "excess_performance": -0.12739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.116041, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007021, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.090284, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156012, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103119, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121093, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046857, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.921053, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1, "relative_activity": 0.263158, "balance": 0.921053, "dry_up": 2.302632, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0474, "annualized_volatility": 0.286605, "from_high_reference": -0.002495, "from_low_reference": 0.247744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 286.548643, "fair_value_reference": 293.31813, "structural_low": 256.30249, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010321, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013593, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.087385, "worst_return": -0.076682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.094608, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.156098, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146562, "worst_return": -0.135818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012481, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010248, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.216471, "worst_return": -0.106542, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059336, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.01796, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068798, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030334, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.069175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006774, "active": false }, { 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.058819, "energy": 18.09933, "activity_lines": [ 282.180001, 275.188621, 276.323631, 280.026295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 307.100006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.35, "trend": 283.767287, "fair_value": 291.456974, "relative_strength": -15.43682, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.256684, "energy": 45.490182, "activity_lines": [ 292.580003, 281.331979, 278.883903, 281.576049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 294.100006, "volume": 38, "typical_volume": 2.2, "trend": 284.289222, "fair_value": 291.872489, "relative_strength": -17.435961, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.974746, "energy": 51.739692, "activity_lines": [ 295.553339, 284.726434, 280.232483, 282.242676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 294.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.2, "trend": 284.990219, "fair_value": 292.266319, "relative_strength": -15.209342, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.202385, "energy": 57.49655, "activity_lines": [ 296.640006, 287.84539, 281.668459, 282.907888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 280.200012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.2, "trend": 285.250986, "fair_value": 292.480105, "relative_strength": -19.952475, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.729162, "energy": 35.347688, "activity_lines": [ 291.740008, 287.890914, 281.760461, 282.598843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 295.700012, "volume": 34, "typical_volume": 3.9, "trend": 285.856081, "fair_value": 292.816896, "relative_strength": -15.023341, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.874974, "energy": 24.16127, "activity_lines": [ 291.893343, 290.35637, 283.340418, 283.272973 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 319.799988, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 3.8, "trend": 286.548643, "fair_value": 293.31813, "relative_strength": -10.311872, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.445992, "energy": 39.898059, "activity_lines": [ 300.380003, 296.661822, 287.144545, 285.462903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }