{ "ticker": { "uuid": "600dc6d6-1b3a-412f-815e-ed26069d7f67", "symbol": "NKE", "name": "NIKE, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.563, "architecture_energy": 45.702, "architecture_maturity": 90.956, "architecture_confidence": 90.691, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.82, "rotation_up": 21.04, "upward_expansion": 5.75, "deceleration": 55.15, "rotation_down": 53.39, "downward_expansion": 76.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.871333, 37.412091, 37.715403, 39.313322 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.369999, "trend_reference": 42.461929, "distance_from_trend": -0.143468, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 65.516938, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.444876, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.179408, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.313177, "excess_performance": -0.487424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143468, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107327, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.444876, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021712, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.401794, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011876, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.313177, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.808466, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8516, "relative_activity": 2.017866, "balance": 0.808466, "dry_up": 1.855378, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063716, "annualized_volatility": 0.378693, "from_high_reference": -0.451841, "from_low_reference": 0.036035 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.461929, "fair_value_reference": 65.516938, "structural_low": 35.105, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.000877, "positive_rate": 0.514286, "directional_follow_through": 0.485714, "median_excess_return": -0.012668, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.204462, "worst_return": -0.228793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.068394, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.052438, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.228036, "worst_return": -0.173289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.038834, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.09238, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.070353, "worst_return": -0.304636, 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41.070562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.535, "volume": 4777, "typical_volume": 3388.1, "trend": 44.028121, "fair_value": 66.59387, "relative_strength": -36.900062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.104976, "energy": 40.294846, "activity_lines": [ 38.337001, 38.35026, 38.452617, 40.692321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.935001, "volume": 10324, "typical_volume": 3778.85, "trend": 43.663955, "fair_value": 66.240791, "relative_strength": -39.407316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.531277, "energy": 39.415181, "activity_lines": [ 37.903001, 38.120705, 38.196907, 40.234701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.119999, "volume": 7704, "typical_volume": 4013.8, "trend": 43.107406, "fair_value": 65.876329, "relative_strength": -39.751062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.855955, "energy": 44.358595, "activity_lines": [ 37.347667, 37.727818, 37.918863, 39.747994 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.369999, "volume": 8516, "typical_volume": 4220.3, "trend": 42.461929, "fair_value": 65.516938, "relative_strength": -40.179408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.562567, "energy": 45.701586, "activity_lines": [ 36.871333, 37.412091, 37.715403, 39.313322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }