{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6014b34d-9e99-46a5-b555-d0c3566fb469", "symbol": "5392", "name": "Abico AVY Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 81.65, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.053, "architecture_energy": 17.168, "architecture_maturity": 20.936, "architecture_confidence": 77.275, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.42, "rotation_up": 28.7, "upward_expansion": 50.3, "deceleration": 84.47, "rotation_down": 35.61, "downward_expansion": 27.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.28, 43.857272, 43.535, 42.714516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.200001, "trend_reference": 42.626667, "distance_from_trend": 0.060369, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.638636, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.343693, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.917801, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.072361, "excess_performance": -0.369011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060369, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017328, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.343693, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003252, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.279178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013908, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072361, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.323388, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9783891, "relative_activity": 0.455034, "balance": 3.323388, "dry_up": 0.559934, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121937, "annualized_volatility": 0.489661, "from_high_reference": -0.246667, "from_low_reference": 0.319708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.626667, "fair_value_reference": 33.638636, "structural_low": 34.25, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.029106, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.030253, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.230061, "worst_return": -0.116279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.001379, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.096308, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.344, "worst_return": -0.175889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038528, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.064284, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.399454, "worst_return": -0.181286, 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46.479999, 45.463636, 43.058571, 42.820538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.599998, "volume": 14212552, "typical_volume": 20204608.3, "trend": 43.121667, "fair_value": 33.119904, "relative_strength": -28.965345, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.102366, "energy": 20.982242, "activity_lines": [ 45.489999, 45.117272, 43.148333, 42.778602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.5, "volume": 5104880, "typical_volume": 20056633.4, "trend": 43.011667, "fair_value": 33.248196, "relative_strength": -32.007834, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.315366, "energy": 5.433292, "activity_lines": [ 44.103332, 44.52909, 43.144762, 42.673978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.799999, "volume": 7928562, "typical_volume": 20236639.45, "trend": 42.738333, "fair_value": 33.3456, "relative_strength": -36.880373, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.066792, "energy": 19.581003, "activity_lines": [ 41.603332, 43.289999, 42.785238, 42.337742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.049999, "volume": 25340261, "typical_volume": 21238507.2, "trend": 42.671667, "fair_value": 33.49051, "relative_strength": -24.477648, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.642321, "energy": 11.657349, "activity_lines": [ 42.499999, 43.664545, 43.219285, 42.551398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 45.200001, "volume": 9783891, "typical_volume": 21501450.75, "trend": 42.626667, "fair_value": 33.638636, "relative_strength": -27.917801, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.053445, "energy": 17.168244, "activity_lines": [ 43.28, 43.857272, 43.535, 42.714516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }