{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60173f81-2328-4702-803e-6a6f93ec3525", "symbol": "ALI1", "name": "Almonty Industries Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.119, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.385, "architecture_energy": 61.14, "architecture_maturity": 17.743, "architecture_confidence": 53.91, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.0, "rotation_up": 17.0, "upward_expansion": 21.87, "deceleration": 43.3, "rotation_down": 70.14, "downward_expansion": 63.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.5644, 12.657109, 14.116052, 14.435572 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.04, "trend_reference": 14.1113, "distance_from_trend": -0.146783, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.304629, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.796989, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.197176, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.02381, "excess_performance": -0.04083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146783, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201541, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.796989, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.315926, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.061972, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.995865, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02381, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.665502, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 537522, "relative_activity": 0.756978, "balance": 0.665502, "dry_up": 0.86314, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1997, "annualized_volatility": 0.884433, "from_high_reference": -0.416101, "from_low_reference": 2.60479 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.1113, "fair_value_reference": 4.304629, "structural_low": 8.92, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout 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15.411334, 15.744818, 15.922405, 14.920204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.325, "volume": 73061, "typical_volume": 917015.3, "trend": 13.305, "fair_value": 3.941523, "relative_strength": 38.689977, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.193116, "energy": 9.642674, "activity_lines": [ 14.962, 15.404364, 15.806524, 15.003441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.895, "volume": 634009, "typical_volume": 917314.4, "trend": 13.577167, "fair_value": 4.026767, "relative_strength": 36.07511, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.860743, "energy": 10.368571, "activity_lines": [ 14.581667, 15.064182, 15.636905, 15.041505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.695, "volume": 604781, "typical_volume": 906260.0, "trend": 13.722667, "fair_value": 4.097927, "relative_strength": 13.945081, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.582005, "energy": 44.239176, "activity_lines": [ 13.509, 14.391455, 15.250452, 14.920075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.095, "volume": 386476, "typical_volume": 811709.65, "trend": 13.8795, "fair_value": 4.171493, "relative_strength": 14.767972, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.055874, "energy": 52.63913, "activity_lines": [ 12.809667, 13.874455, 14.919167, 14.815065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.924, "volume": 922847, "typical_volume": 782463.6, "trend": 13.966633, "fair_value": 4.231219, "relative_strength": -8.831329, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.379542, "energy": 68.367851, "activity_lines": [ 11.68, 13.018909, 14.400476, 14.559871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.04, "volume": 537522, "typical_volume": 710089.45, "trend": 14.1113, "fair_value": 4.304629, "relative_strength": 6.197176, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.384654, "energy": 61.139839, "activity_lines": [ 11.5644, 12.657109, 14.116052, 14.435572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }