{ "ticker": { "uuid": "601aef8a-3e1b-4005-a0c8-104dc15f5a2b", "symbol": "WEBC", "name": "Amundi MSCI North America ESG Broad Transition UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.079, "architecture_energy": 68.819, "architecture_maturity": 89.719, "architecture_confidence": 74.269, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.15, "rotation_up": 54.43, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.32, "rotation_down": 29.22, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 139.938666, 139.363273, 137.251048, 134.035393 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 142.759995, "trend_reference": 130.300975, "distance_from_trend": 0.095617, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 112.180455, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272592, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.210898, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.161758, "excess_performance": 0.097119, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095617, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039327, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272592, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041514, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042109, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047341, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.161758, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.190887, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1206, "relative_activity": 0.52794, "balance": 6.190887, "dry_up": 0.520279, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017199, "annualized_volatility": 0.116203, "from_high_reference": -0.002237, "from_low_reference": 0.236363 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 130.300975, "fair_value_reference": 112.180455, "structural_low": 116.879997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.011645, "positive_rate": 0.567568, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.000601, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.0675, "worst_return": -0.112989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.030664, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.009622, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.109462, "worst_return": -0.103312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058714, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.051764, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.180245, "worst_return": -0.088845, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 138.708002, 138.549093, 136.292763, 133.198005 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 142.759995, "volume": 1206, "typical_volume": 2284.35, "trend": 130.300975, "fair_value": 112.180455, "relative_strength": 4.210898, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.079165, "energy": 68.819001, "activity_lines": [ 139.938666, 139.363273, 137.251048, 134.035393 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }