{ "ticker": { "uuid": "602d65a2-52ff-4f24-8489-e47e24687c25", "symbol": "WMB", "name": "The Williams Companies, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.166, "architecture_energy": 10.741, "architecture_maturity": 18.804, "architecture_confidence": 74.536, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.52, "rotation_up": 20.58, "upward_expansion": 47.99, "deceleration": 89.55, "rotation_down": 33.95, "downward_expansion": 25.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.130667, 63.894827, 63.700667, 63.297636 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 61.540001, "trend_reference": 62.076531, "distance_from_trend": -0.008643, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.701213, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.346573, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.735971, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.083043, "excess_performance": -0.091203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008643, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075778, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.346573, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105231, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11736, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093798, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083043, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.608579, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10, "relative_activity": 0.198216, "balance": 1.608579, "dry_up": 2.021804, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058626, "annualized_volatility": 0.294805, "from_high_reference": -0.10396, "from_low_reference": 0.318615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.076531, "fair_value_reference": 45.701213, "structural_low": 55.849378, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.037947, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.024714, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.114228, "worst_return": -0.044857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.141357, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.00524, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.177282, "worst_return": -0.039967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.199048, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.05098, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.284688, "worst_return": -0.02595, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.332372, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.06917, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.457268, "worst_return": 0.207476, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009441, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027518, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034215, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038995, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125741, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009623, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062219, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099719, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057997, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", 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44.535885, "relative_strength": -7.589038, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.632089, "energy": 35.808254, "activity_lines": [ 64.890366, 64.265038, 63.534825, 62.355827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 65.019997, "volume": 524, "typical_volume": 39.5, "trend": 60.355131, "fair_value": 44.784199, "relative_strength": -5.021554, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.874576, "energy": 41.457513, "activity_lines": [ 65.143999, 64.441242, 63.711316, 62.689028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 64.459999, "volume": 183, "typical_volume": 48.65, "trend": 60.84283, "fair_value": 45.024839, "relative_strength": -3.891946, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.298289, "energy": 38.860089, "activity_lines": [ 65.030665, 64.506122, 63.815884, 62.953858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.720001, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 46.95, "trend": 61.381621, "fair_value": 45.271062, "relative_strength": -3.337988, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.897837, "energy": 29.773368, "activity_lines": [ 65.230666, 64.750284, 64.031093, 63.268515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.040001, "volume": 180, "typical_volume": 55.95, "trend": 61.746997, "fair_value": 45.489215, "relative_strength": -8.488073, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.338828, "energy": 11.824581, "activity_lines": [ 64.042667, 64.327282, 63.885094, 63.310991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.540001, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 50.45, "trend": 62.076531, "fair_value": 45.701213, "relative_strength": -11.735971, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.165612, "energy": 10.741145, "activity_lines": [ 63.130667, 63.894827, 63.700667, 63.297636 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }