{ "ticker": { "uuid": "602dd754-a41f-4e3f-9d1a-3d00f76cd2be", "symbol": "HUG", "name": "Global X Gold ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.614, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.83, "architecture_energy": 53.836, "architecture_maturity": 65.789, "architecture_confidence": 70.964, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.05, "rotation_up": 26.98, "upward_expansion": 21.44, "deceleration": 66.69, "rotation_down": 50.02, "downward_expansion": 73.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.316, 30.243273, 31.295, 32.366946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.690001, "trend_reference": 33.734333, "distance_from_trend": -0.060601, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.879231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327095, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.17232, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.13557, "excess_performance": -0.255991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060601, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01424, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.327095, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.21068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121723, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13416, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.13557, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.476154, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8600, "relative_activity": 0.239321, "balance": 0.476154, "dry_up": 0.306804, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033425, "annualized_volatility": 0.241096, "from_high_reference": -0.228954, "from_low_reference": 0.26507 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.734333, "fair_value_reference": 23.879231, "structural_low": 28.969999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001347, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004045, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.075388, "worst_return": -0.043836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.033762, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.025758, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.164918, "worst_return": -0.038905, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.113281, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.053787, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119597, "worst_return": 0.109589, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.152174, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.089454, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.34678, "worst_return": -0.086301, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003161, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032446, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002492, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022305, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037464, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033279, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.118428, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029554, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.187442, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000393, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.2922, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007203, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086279, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059866, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.1, "volume": 4500, "typical_volume": 6170.0, "trend": 15.573333, "fair_value": 15.087051, "relative_strength": 1.426007, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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-12.200978, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.908144, "energy": 70.604766, "activity_lines": [ 32.040001, 32.973274, 34.039762, 34.402215 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 30.5, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 52555.0, "trend": 34.283, "fair_value": 23.224551, "relative_strength": -13.034528, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.160641, "energy": 90.163482, "activity_lines": [ 31.381334, 32.393455, 33.613048, 34.157957 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 29.9, "volume": 4100, "typical_volume": 48305.0, "trend": 34.218667, "fair_value": 23.318141, "relative_strength": -14.647049, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.773888, "energy": 93.120791, "activity_lines": [ 30.716, 31.787819, 33.154239, 33.875183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.469999, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 46570.0, "trend": 34.186667, "fair_value": 23.414487, "relative_strength": -13.558321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.019779, "energy": 87.754728, "activity_lines": [ 30.452666, 31.394, 32.781905, 33.633334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.99, "volume": 23400, "typical_volume": 46095.0, "trend": 34.116, "fair_value": 23.506346, "relative_strength": -14.903887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.956508, "energy": 89.044645, "activity_lines": [ 30.223333, 30.991818, 32.396238, 33.362581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.33, "volume": 25600, "typical_volume": 44490.0, "trend": 34.011, "fair_value": 23.593782, "relative_strength": -16.519812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.545281, "energy": 89.872545, "activity_lines": [ 29.888, 30.543091, 31.98481, 33.053807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.799999, "volume": 3400, "typical_volume": 41515.0, "trend": 33.887667, "fair_value": 23.684231, "relative_strength": -15.307442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.411351, "energy": 75.704135, "activity_lines": [ 29.808666, 30.278182, 31.664095, 32.782129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.559999, "volume": 6500, "typical_volume": 39270.0, "trend": 33.797667, "fair_value": 23.774167, "relative_strength": -15.48307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.481834, "energy": 67.246733, "activity_lines": [ 29.695999, 30.035091, 31.360238, 32.502925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.690001, "volume": 8600, "typical_volume": 35935.0, "trend": 33.734333, "fair_value": 23.879231, "relative_strength": -12.17232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.83, "energy": 53.836154, "activity_lines": [ 30.316, 30.243273, 31.295, 32.366946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }