{ "ticker": { "uuid": "602ffce1-bfeb-4590-8f9c-6caac773bc5d", "symbol": "TCPD", "name": "CP ALL Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 89.666, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 3.322, "architecture_energy": 6.919, "architecture_maturity": 26.488, "architecture_confidence": 70.142, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 71.72, "rotation_up": 23.09, "upward_expansion": 32.64, "deceleration": 33.49, "rotation_down": 32.03, "downward_expansion": 47.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.829333, 1.823091, 1.814381, 1.822301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.89, "trend_reference": 1.833, "distance_from_trend": 0.031097, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.996054, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.053132, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.571901, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.027174, "excess_performance": -0.127661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031097, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006037, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.053132, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090953, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135719, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00432, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027174, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.721198, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13300, "relative_activity": 0.29734, "balance": 5.721198, "dry_up": 0.159289, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033781, "annualized_volatility": 0.327478, "from_high_reference": -0.144796, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.833, "fair_value_reference": 1.996054, "structural_low": 1.68, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.010989, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.039683, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.020619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.082474, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.138229, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.082474, "worst_return": -0.082474, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.051546, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.166188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.051546, "worst_return": -0.051546, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004032, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009524, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.016268, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005155, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08377, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022099, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039548, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085, "active": false }, { "regime": 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1.822753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.79, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 53055.0, "trend": 1.828, "fair_value": 2.001422, "relative_strength": -17.42543, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.399741, "energy": 17.117249, "activity_lines": [ 1.810667, 1.811818, 1.805429, 1.820172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.8, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 46160.0, "trend": 1.829, "fair_value": 1.99848, "relative_strength": -17.089927, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.888495, "energy": 21.379778, "activity_lines": [ 1.806, 1.809091, 1.805524, 1.818366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.89, "volume": 13300, "typical_volume": 44730.0, "trend": 1.833, "fair_value": 1.996054, "relative_strength": -13.571901, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.32193, "energy": 6.918793, "activity_lines": [ 1.829333, 1.823091, 1.814381, 1.822301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }