{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6037e9f7-b5c3-40ec-818a-636367a56e82", "symbol": "VEON", "name": "VEON Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.611, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.328, "architecture_energy": 23.848, "architecture_maturity": 38.823, "architecture_confidence": 67.739, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.57, "rotation_up": 41.01, "upward_expansion": 45.55, "deceleration": 36.08, "rotation_down": 30.03, "downward_expansion": 15.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.615333, 52.905455, 52.79819, 52.552624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 57.1, "trend_reference": 52.612833, "distance_from_trend": 0.085287, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.355001, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.488724, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.139324, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.085139, "excess_performance": -0.102315, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085287, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010762, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.488724, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094712, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150362, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085139, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.943827, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 450510, "relative_activity": 1.038545, "balance": 1.943827, "dry_up": 0.899076, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073205, "annualized_volatility": 0.336452, "from_high_reference": -0.107812, "from_low_reference": 0.340376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.612833, "fair_value_reference": 38.355001, "structural_low": 44.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.036812, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.022541, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.262668, "worst_return": -0.168545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.108081, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.042243, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.476732, "worst_return": -0.110061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.075598, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.033957, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.618201, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.16116, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.132649, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.580145, "worst_return": -0.765895, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057276, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069519, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.378813, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190424, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.240266, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.263205, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101377, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134499, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090966, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.046825, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062963, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145013, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.077358, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.23, "volume": 104855, "typical_volume": 266367.65, "trend": 18.168333, "fair_value": 28.613221, "relative_strength": -5.748514, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": 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-11.967514, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.117112, "energy": 8.789804, "activity_lines": [ 52.176667, 52.526, 52.3245, 52.360054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.01, "volume": 360313, "typical_volume": 490851.65, "trend": 52.457833, "fair_value": 37.875578, "relative_strength": -11.165349, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.237668, "energy": 19.812065, "activity_lines": [ 51.806, 52.141091, 52.241619, 52.263075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.29, "volume": 507997, "typical_volume": 451962.25, "trend": 52.444167, "fair_value": 38.100449, "relative_strength": -9.109026, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.617028, "energy": 13.205359, "activity_lines": [ 51.93, 52.048545, 52.294881, 52.252247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.1, "volume": 450510, "typical_volume": 433789.4, "trend": 52.612833, "fair_value": 38.355001, "relative_strength": -5.139324, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.328261, "energy": 23.848433, "activity_lines": [ 53.615333, 52.905455, 52.79819, 52.552624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }