{ "ticker": { "uuid": "603805f4-7ae2-4968-900a-2e1e19693e68", "symbol": "CUL", "name": "Cullen Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.277, "architecture_energy": 42.698, "architecture_maturity": 47.283, "architecture_confidence": 87.582, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.91, "rotation_up": 23.95, "upward_expansion": 6.05, "deceleration": 53.85, "rotation_down": 47.84, "downward_expansion": 77.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0058, 0.005864, 0.006331, 0.006739 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.007217, "distance_from_trend": -0.168591, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.006763, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.112795, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.126534, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.313706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168591, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086498, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.112795, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104172, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221265, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236948, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.036117, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 590483, "relative_activity": 0.60985, "balance": 5.036117, "dry_up": 3.3028, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141026, "annualized_volatility": 0.920488, "from_high_reference": -0.4, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.007217, "fair_value_reference": 0.006763, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.394737, "median_excess_return": -0.011839, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.583333, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.009496, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.145833, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.094742, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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0.006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 500230.35, "trend": 0.00745, "fair_value": 0.006846, "relative_strength": -17.897116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.305842, "energy": 56.567774, "activity_lines": [ 0.006033, 0.006145, 0.006719, 0.007065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.005, "volume": 545, "typical_volume": 498250.15, "trend": 0.007317, "fair_value": 0.006814, "relative_strength": -31.37961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.151585, "energy": 71.68308, "activity_lines": [ 0.005667, 0.0059, 0.006512, 0.006906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 12200616, "typical_volume": 1053270.0, "trend": 0.007283, "fair_value": 0.006788, "relative_strength": -19.700885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.564747, "energy": 43.084137, "activity_lines": [ 0.005733, 0.005873, 0.006414, 0.006822 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 590483, "typical_volume": 968242.35, "trend": 0.007217, "fair_value": 0.006763, "relative_strength": -22.126534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.277259, "energy": 42.697773, "activity_lines": [ 0.0058, 0.005864, 0.006331, 0.006739 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }