{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6039b9bd-32bf-4026-84e3-a1600bb13bd8", "symbol": "002476", "name": "Shandong Polymer Biochemicals Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.506, "architecture_energy": 66.385, "architecture_maturity": 42.509, "architecture_confidence": 87.576, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 15.63, "upward_expansion": 12.65, "deceleration": 47.64, "rotation_down": 68.42, "downward_expansion": 85.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.366, 4.538909, 4.932762, 5.239183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.52, "trend_reference": 5.695333, "distance_from_trend": -0.206368, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.95861, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.088454, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.391224, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.31307, "excess_performance": -0.32047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.206368, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080854, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.088454, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.303316, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243912, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10224, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.31307, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.290242, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37249540, "relative_activity": 0.850084, "balance": 0.290242, "dry_up": 1.112487, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089517, "annualized_volatility": 0.320055, "from_high_reference": -0.434293, "from_low_reference": 0.127182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.695333, "fair_value_reference": 4.95861, "structural_low": 4.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.015831, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.001234, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.173789, "worst_return": -0.150376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023499, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.015975, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.402247, "worst_return": -0.049418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.027081, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.101058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.336188, "worst_return": -0.117308, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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48106086.85, "trend": 5.864333, "fair_value": 4.959228, "relative_strength": -28.981258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.509042, "energy": 91.265213, "activity_lines": [ 4.386667, 4.692364, 5.106286, 5.417914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.36, "volume": 43402500, "typical_volume": 45005232.95, "trend": 5.786, "fair_value": 4.958597, "relative_strength": -23.541864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.480613, "energy": 82.505809, "activity_lines": [ 4.335333, 4.589636, 5.007619, 5.32086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.52, "volume": 37249540, "typical_volume": 43818662.4, "trend": 5.695333, "fair_value": 4.95861, "relative_strength": -24.391224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.505906, "energy": 66.384954, "activity_lines": [ 4.366, 4.538909, 4.932762, 5.239183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }