{ "ticker": { "uuid": "603a16cc-3f4b-47cb-a2f7-0a2d2eb7a885", "symbol": "WSLV", "name": "WisdomTree Core Physical Silver", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.668, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.909, "architecture_energy": 54.49, "architecture_maturity": 32.494, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.57, "rotation_up": 21.89, "upward_expansion": 8.74, "deceleration": 54.35, "rotation_down": 58.19, "downward_expansion": 82.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.754001, 52.411183, 56.370358, 59.167624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 54.740002, "trend_reference": 63.4495, "distance_from_trend": -0.137267, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.03901, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.271869, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.116569, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.141737, "excess_performance": -0.312629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137267, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005735, "read": "Rising" 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47.830002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.084485, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.072255, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.084485, "worst_return": -0.084485, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.165092, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077663, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00866, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-06", "close": 25.450001, "volume": 450, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, 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"activity_lines": [ 51.247334, 53.585091, 57.854953, 60.701936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.685001, "volume": 13331, "typical_volume": 47836.45, "trend": 63.915167, "fair_value": 42.922, "relative_strength": -20.379698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.944942, "energy": 75.868152, "activity_lines": [ 50.588334, 52.398, 56.823953, 59.75957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.740002, "volume": 30469, "typical_volume": 40916.35, "trend": 63.4495, "fair_value": 43.03901, "relative_strength": -15.116569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.908869, "energy": 54.490195, "activity_lines": [ 51.754001, 52.411183, 56.370358, 59.167624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }