{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6045cae3-bb60-49dd-8055-3baa269aa11d", "symbol": "4160", "name": "Thimar Development Holding Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.656, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.174, "architecture_energy": 11.289, "architecture_maturity": 22.466, "architecture_confidence": 54.615, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.47, "rotation_up": 19.12, "upward_expansion": 21.76, "deceleration": 74.97, "rotation_down": 45.81, "downward_expansion": 30.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.166667, 35.039273, 34.441048, 34.436946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 34.220001, "trend_reference": 34.407333, "distance_from_trend": -0.005445, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.250509, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029157, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.181639, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.047857, "excess_performance": -0.016028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005445, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038418, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029157, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014249, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071816, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039797, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.96654, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 633830, "relative_activity": 0.671357, "balance": 0.96654, "dry_up": 1.075503, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097514, "annualized_volatility": 0.423069, "from_high_reference": -0.32704, "from_low_reference": 0.184083 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.407333, "fair_value_reference": 33.250509, "structural_low": 28.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038052, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.025871, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.241845, "worst_return": -0.112332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024771, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.00786, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.302239, "worst_return": -0.060742, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.154106, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.087391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.701492, "worst_return": -0.175695, "sufficient": false }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042735, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048748, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071597, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036638, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00411, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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34.586064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.360001, "volume": 1844810, "typical_volume": 926575.45, "trend": 34.861333, "fair_value": 33.021429, "relative_strength": -3.160112, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.864359, "energy": 29.250277, "activity_lines": [ 36.677334, 35.405455, 34.604857, 34.611484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.860001, "volume": 760646, "typical_volume": 920947.7, "trend": 34.690667, "fair_value": 33.093476, "relative_strength": -7.950889, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.146982, "energy": 18.961099, "activity_lines": [ 35.817334, 35.320728, 34.541334, 34.546882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.299999, "volume": 822255, "typical_volume": 917850.5, "trend": 34.533333, "fair_value": 33.166674, "relative_strength": -7.567734, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.585762, "energy": 11.65603, "activity_lines": [ 34.754667, 35.119273, 34.445714, 34.457161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.220001, "volume": 633830, "typical_volume": 944102.7, "trend": 34.407333, "fair_value": 33.250509, "relative_strength": -7.181639, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.174255, "energy": 11.28902, "activity_lines": [ 34.166667, 35.039273, 34.441048, 34.436946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }