{ "ticker": { "uuid": "604862f7-3d9a-467e-8afd-9810e40ea196", "symbol": "DRTS", "name": "Alpha Tau Medical Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.456, "architecture_energy": 50.118, "architecture_maturity": 66.939, "architecture_confidence": 80.067, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.29, "rotation_up": 57.51, "upward_expansion": 80.28, "deceleration": 65.71, "rotation_down": 21.34, "downward_expansion": 6.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.678, 12.303273, 11.199857, 10.248667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.14, "trend_reference": 9.111667, "distance_from_trend": 0.442107, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.245813, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.094813, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 67.865702, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.848101, "excess_performance": 0.660648, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.442107, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.347853, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.094813, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.751819, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.678657, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.223107, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.848101, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.131283, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1934045, "relative_activity": 0.564464, "balance": 1.131283, "dry_up": 0.840597, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145206, "annualized_volatility": 0.634676, "from_high_reference": -0.068746, "from_low_reference": 3.38 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.111667, "fair_value_reference": 4.245813, "structural_low": 6.1, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.01264, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.01317, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.404339, "worst_return": -0.12357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.132317, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.076507, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.941303, "worst_return": -0.136808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.01342, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.009728, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.198171, "worst_return": -0.311213, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152318, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136802, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082437, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119255, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.132317, "active": 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12.71, "volume": 4297719, "typical_volume": 3170998.95, "trend": 8.143333, "fair_value": 4.018835, "relative_strength": 77.897085, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.566348, "energy": 71.039013, "activity_lines": [ 11.901333, 11.094364, 9.92981, 9.162645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.55, "volume": 3654747, "typical_volume": 3232278.4, "trend": 8.426, "fair_value": 4.079668, "relative_strength": 92.601234, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.471213, "energy": 81.842808, "activity_lines": [ 12.654667, 11.639091, 10.364667, 9.511462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.5, "volume": 2951155, "typical_volume": 3299930.15, "trend": 8.672667, "fair_value": 4.135245, "relative_strength": 76.255343, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.289373, "energy": 74.908787, "activity_lines": [ 12.811333, 11.901273, 10.671952, 9.774301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.79, "volume": 2980738, "typical_volume": 3387941.4, "trend": 8.904667, "fair_value": 4.186014, "relative_strength": 61.811841, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.731176, "energy": 51.34811, "activity_lines": [ 12.55, 11.995455, 10.882619, 9.975419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.14, "volume": 1934045, "typical_volume": 3426338.3, "trend": 9.111667, "fair_value": 4.245813, "relative_strength": 67.865702, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.455988, "energy": 50.118405, "activity_lines": [ 12.678, 12.303273, 11.199857, 10.248667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }