{ "ticker": { "uuid": "604a6221-86e3-424a-bea9-33e7052b0c21", "symbol": "BFF", "name": "BFF Bank S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.001, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 8.089, "architecture_energy": 10.442, "architecture_maturity": 27.108, "architecture_confidence": 52.406, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.61, "rotation_up": 26.94, "upward_expansion": 29.34, "deceleration": 45.64, "rotation_down": 21.52, "downward_expansion": 46.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.051733, 3.042873, 2.821838, 2.872576 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.276, "trend_reference": 3.416867, "distance_from_trend": -0.041227, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.394556, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.609747, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -57.775269, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.262494, "excess_performance": -0.433386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041227, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.408567, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.609747, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158666, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.577753, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20242, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.262494, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.065448, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38673541, "relative_activity": 1.242335, "balance": 3.065448, "dry_up": 0.612491, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104067, "annualized_volatility": 1.365482, "from_high_reference": -0.71976, "from_low_reference": 1.669927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.416867, "fair_value_reference": 8.394556, "structural_low": 1.227, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.007706, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002476, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.075174, "worst_return": -0.129161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.07669, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.000676, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.231345, "worst_return": -0.093989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.061791, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.058422, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.226702, "worst_return": -0.163471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.17345, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.071643, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302501, "worst_return": 0.0444, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16223, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.174505, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006508, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021405, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.180383, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.087286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.039575, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018092, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.19379, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126389, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001058, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.615594, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075269, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119617, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.799208, "volume": 901542, "typical_volume": 2237667.95, "trend": 8.405276, "fair_value": 5.615006, "relative_strength": 8.974003, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.368198, "energy": 20.976975, "activity_lines": [ 3.113067, 2.944509, 2.679486, 3.116652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.926, "volume": 20078102, "typical_volume": 30255987.0, "trend": 4.0565, "fair_value": 8.50939, "relative_strength": -63.897677, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.934985, "energy": 15.362886, "activity_lines": [ 3.0628, 2.973964, 2.703052, 3.029686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.896, "volume": 8267667, "typical_volume": 30078662.85, "trend": 3.8417, "fair_value": 8.468038, "relative_strength": -63.324292, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.272244, "energy": 10.947121, "activity_lines": [ 2.9976, 2.982218, 2.727848, 2.954815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.914, "volume": 9247365, "typical_volume": 30056817.75, "trend": 3.623, "fair_value": 8.430459, "relative_strength": -62.39439, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.613493, "energy": 15.408177, "activity_lines": [ 2.962267, 2.985018, 2.756786, 2.894963 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.276, "volume": 38673541, "typical_volume": 31129726.15, "trend": 3.416867, "fair_value": 8.394556, "relative_strength": -57.775269, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.089138, "energy": 10.442229, "activity_lines": [ 3.051733, 3.042873, 2.821838, 2.872576 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }